Exit polls suggest a BJP sweep in Assam, a tight and conflicting battle in West Bengal, DMK likely retaining Tamil Nadu, and a possible UDF comeback in Kerala. Puducherry may see NDA return. All eyes now on May 4 counting day.
With counting day just around the corner, exit polls released on Wednesday have painted a politically charged picture across five key states — suggesting big wins, close contests, and potential comebacks.
While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to dominate in Assam, the battle for West Bengal appears far more competitive. Meanwhile, regional dynamics in the south indicate a return of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu and a possible comeback for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala.
Assam: BJP Heading for a Comfortable Victory
Exit polls suggest a strong showing for the BJP-led alliance in Assam.
Axis My India predicted a sweep for the BJP, forecasting 88-100 seats for the BJP and its allies and 24-36 seats for the Congress and its partners.
People’s Pulse projected the NDA would secure 68-72 seats, while the Congress-plus alliance may get 22-26 seats.
Matrize also backed the BJP, estimating 85-95 seats for the NDA and 25-32 seats for the Congress alliance.
With the Assam Assembly having 126 seats and a majority mark of 64, all projections indicate the BJP comfortably crossing the halfway mark.
Kerala: UDF Eyes Return After a Decade
In Kerala, exit polls suggest a potential shift in power after 10 years.
Axis My India forecast the UDF would secure 78-90 seats, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) may get 49-62 seats, and the NDA 0-3 seats.
People’s Pulse offered similar projections, putting the UDF at 75-85 seats, LDF at 55-65, and NDA at 0-3.
Matrize, however, showed a closer contest, predicting 60-65 seats for the LDF, 70-75 for the UDF, and 3-5 for the NDA.
The Kerala Assembly has 140 seats, with the majority mark set at 71.
West Bengal: Conflicting Signals Point to a Tight Battle
The most intriguing contest appears to be in West Bengal, where exit polls are sharply divided.
People’s Pulse predicted the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) would retain power with 177-187 seats, while the BJP may secure 95-110 seats. The Left Front and Congress are expected to remain marginal players with 0-1 and 1-3 seats, respectively.
However, Matrize suggested a BJP edge, projecting 146-161 seats for the party against 125-140 for the TMC.
P-Marq went even further, predicting 150-175 seats for the BJP and 118-138 for the TMC.
With 294 total seats and a majority mark of 148, West Bengal remains too close to call based on these projections.
Tamil Nadu: DMK Likely to Hold Ground
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls indicate the ruling DMK-led alliance is likely to retain power.
People’s Pulse predicted 125-145 seats for the DMK alliance, 65-80 seats for the AIADMK-BJP combine, and 18-24 seats for Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
Matrize projected 122-132 seats for the DMK-Congress alliance, 87-100 for the NDA, and 10-12 for TVK.
The Tamil Nadu Assembly has 234 seats, with the majority mark at 118.
Puducherry: NDA Set to Return
In Puducherry, exit polls suggest a return of the NDA government led by the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC).
Axis My India predicted 16-20 seats for the NDA, 6-8 seats for the DMK-Congress alliance, and 2-4 seats for TVK in the 30-member Assembly.
High Voter Turnout Across States
The elections saw record-breaking participation across several states.
Assam recorded 85.38% turnout, its highest ever Puducherry followed with 89.83% Tamil Nadu saw 84.69%, its highest since Independence West Bengal recorded a remarkable 91.78% turnout in the first phase
Polling was conducted in a single phase in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, and Tamil Nadu, while West Bengal voted in two phases on April 23 and 29.
Stakes and Political Battlelines
The BJP is seeking to retain power in Assam and Puducherry, where it governs in alliance with AINRC. The Congress is aiming to reclaim these territories.
In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is attempting to unseat the ruling LDF, while in Tamil Nadu, the DMK is trying to hold off a challenge from the AIADMK-BJP alliance and the debutant TVK led by actor-turned-politician Vijay.
In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the TMC are battling to retain power against an aggressive BJP campaign.
Final Word: Exit Polls vs Reality
While the numbers offer a glimpse into voter sentiment, exit polls have often been inaccurate in the past. As always, the real picture will only emerge when votes are counted on May 4.
Until then, the political suspense remains very much alive.