In the last three assembly elections, Bengal and Tamil Nadu were the most challenging for exit polls.
After the second phase of voting in the West Bengal Assembly elections, exit polls for the five assembly election states Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, Puducherry and West Bengal will come this evening. It will be interesting to see how accurate the exit poll figures will be this time? Of the last three assembly elections among the five states, Bengal and Tamil Nadu have been the most challenging for exit polls, where it has often proved difficult to understand the mood of the voters. During the last three elections in Assam and Kerala, the direction of exit polls has generally been right. In the 2021 elections, West Bengal was the only state where the average of the polls was far away from the ground reality.
Like always, the supporters of the party which is winning in the exit poll will take sweets, distribute them and eat them. Workers and supporters of the party that lost in the exit poll will say that this is an exit poll, an assessment, the real results will come on May 4, and their party will register victory in it. Come, before the exit polls, let us know how accurate the exit polls and the actual results of the last three elections in the five states having assembly elections proved to be?
West Bengal: Exit polls failed
There are a total of 294 seats in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly.
- 2021: Exit polls proved to be wrong the most. In many surveys, a close contest was reported between Trinamool Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party, but when the results came, the situation turned out to be the opposite. In this election, Trinamool Congress got 213 seats. Bharatiya Janata Party got only 77 seats. However, on the basis of old elections, this was a big victory for BJP.
- 2016: Exit polls estimated the comeback of Trinamool Congress but underestimated the strength of the victory. When the results came, Trinamool Congress finally reached 211 seats.
- 2011: In the assembly elections, in the exit poll, Trinamool Congress and Alliance together were given 180-182 seats and the Left was given more than a hundred seats. When the results came, TMC alone won 184 seats. Left parties were reduced to 62.
In this way, it can be said that the exit polls captured Mamata’s victory in the 2011 elections but there was a mistake in the accurate assessment. In both the subsequent elections, exit polls in West Bengal proved to be almost a failure.
Assam: Assessment of results remained correct
The total number of seats in Assam Legislative Assembly is 126.
- 2021: Exit polls had predicted the return of the Bharatiya Janata Party alliance. The estimation of seats was 75-85. In fact, the BJP alliance registered victory almost within this range and was successful in forming the government.
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma
- 2016: Exit polls predicted a change of power and the rise of the BJP alliance. The BJP alliance won in the actual results also.
- 2011: There was confusion in the exit polls in Assam but when the actual results came, Congress formed the government. BJP had got five seats in this election.
In this way, it can be said that in the last three elections, exit polls in Assam were successful in winning trust to a great extent.
Tamil Nadu: Sometimes a situation of happiness and sometimes sadness
The total number of seats in Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly is 234.
- 2021: The victory of DMK alliance was correctly estimated but the seats were less than expected. In exit polls, the DMK alliance was estimated at 175-195 seats. In the actual result, DMK alliance won but the seats were less than expected. DMK emerged as the largest party.
- 2016: The situation was opposite in the elections. Many exit polls were leaning towards DMK. But AIADMK saved power, meaning this time the polls missed the mark.
- 2011: Exit poll data had created different scenes in the elections. AIADMK was given 105 to 176 seats and DMK was predicted to win 54 to 130 seats by different agencies. When the actual results came, AIADMK was victorious on 203 seats, contrary to all estimates. The DMK alliance had to be content with 31 seats. In this way, it can be said that the record of exit polls in Tamil Nadu has been mixed. Sometimes happy and sometimes sad type.
Kerala: The direction of exit polls is often right
The number of seats in Kerala Legislative Assembly is 140.
- 2021: Most of the exit polls predicted the return of LDF. When the results came, it turned out to be correct, but the actual victory was much bigger than expected. LDF won 99 seats.
Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
- 2016: Most of the exit polls had predicted victory for LDF. The result was the same and LDF was successful in forming the government.
- 2011:The matter was tricky that year. Still, most of the Poles showed UDF ahead. When the actual results came, the conditions remained almost the same. UDF won 72 seats and LDF won 68 seats. In this way, it can be said that exit polls in Kerala often get the direction right.
Puducherry: Exit polls are in the right direction
The number of assembly seats in Puducherry is 33 but elections are held only on 30. The Government of India nominates three members.
- 2021: Exit polls gave lead to NDA. When the actual results came, they were accurate. NDA formed government.
- 2016: Exit polls were in favor of Congress-DMK alliance. When the final results came, this alliance remained ahead and the government was formed.
- 2011: More or less, the exit polling agencies had got it right. There was a wave against the government here. The result was that when the final results came, N Rangaswamy’s government was defeated. It can be said that the exit polls in Puducherry were largely fine.
In this way, it can be clearly said that the exit polls of the last two assembly elections (2016 and 2021) were accurate in Assam. To a large extent, this was true in Kerala and Puducherry also. Polls and actual results from Tamil Nadu were mixed. West Bengal had the weakest record. Here all the estimates kept falling flat. The results were different. In the year 2011, the anti-incumbency wave had caught hold in many states, but the scale of seats turned out to be wrong in many places. The biggest gap was in Tamil Nadu and to some extent in Kerala. The direction of change in West Bengal was right, but the size of the victory was underestimated.
Also read: Be it IPS, IAS or IRS, what work do they do as observers in elections?
