New Delhi: A peculiar but currently popular trend is being observed in Singapore currently. On popular prediction market Polymarket, hundreds of thousands of dollars are at stake in bets on what the highest temperature will be in Singapore on any given day, reports The Strait Times.
Similar markets where bets are being placed on what the highest daily temperature will be, are also available for other places throughout the world.
Predicting temperatures
Since the trend began in March, the size of this daily market reached an all-time high of over US$260,000 (S$330,000) in total volume of bets on April 13. On that day, the highest temperature recorded by Weather Underground, which the market uses as its measure, was 34 degree Celsius.
Talking to the Strait Times, Dr Yifan Feng, assistant professor at the National University of Singapore Business School, said that these temperature-related markets illustrate “how easily platforms can turn even small uncertainties into tradeable contracts”. “That demonstrates the flexibility of the prediction market idea, but it also reminds us that not every market is equally informative or meaningful,” he added.
Meanwhile, Singapore was among the first in the world to ban leading prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket was blocked by the Gambling Regulatory Authority in December 2024.
Rising trend of prediction markets globally
Prediction markets are platforms where users trade contracts based on the probability of real-world events. These are currently seeing a sharp rise in popularity around the world. Once considered a niche tool, mostly with exclusive usage seen by academics and policy analysts, these markets are increasingly mainstream.
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have become extremely popular around the world, attracting significant trading volumes and being used to forecast everything from elections, economic indicators, and even geopolitical risks. On one hand regulators are beginning to scrutinize the sector more closely, on the other media companies and digital platforms are integrating prediction markets more and more.