The higher forecast arrived a week after an Israeli regulator closed its review of a filing tied to the $4.2 billion takeover.
- ZIM lifts its adjusted EBITDA forecast to $2.7 billion to $3 billion.
- The new midpoints are 30% and 72% above the prior guidance for adjusted EBITDA and EBIT.
- Hapag-Lloyd plans to submit a new proposal to the Israeli Government Companies Authority.
ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) stock rose more than 4% in overnight trading heading into Wednesday after the container shipping company raised its full-year earnings outlook, even as its $4.2 billion acquisition by Hapag-Lloyd faces a regulatory hurdle in Israel.
ZIM stock closed at $29.20 on Tuesday, nearly 20% below Hapag-Lloyd’s $35-a-share offer. The stock gained 7% in September.
ZIM Lifts 2026 Outlook
On Tuesday, ZIM raised its 2026 financial outlook, expecting adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 billion to $3 billion for the year ending Dec. 31, up from its earlier range of $2 billion to $2.4 billion. ZIM also raised its adjusted EBIT forecast to $1.4 billion to $ 1.7 billion, well above its previous estimate of $700 million to $1.1 billion.
At the midpoint, the revised EBITDA forecast is about 30% higher than the prior guidance issued on Aug. 19. The midpoint for adjusted EBIT represents a 72% increase from the previous outlook.
ZIM Faces Regulatory Hurdle As Israel Pauses Hapag-Lloyd Merger Review
The outlook update comes as ZIM faces a hurdle in its planned merger with Hapag-Lloyd after an Israeli regulator stopped reviewing the company’s existing request tied to the transaction.
The Israeli Government Companies Authority told ZIM on Sept. 29 that it would close its review of the carrier’s application concerning changes to the special state share connected to the proposed merger.
Israel’s Concerns Over Emergency Shipping Capacity
In February, Hapag-Lloyd agreed to buy ZIM for $35 a share in cash. The deal is worth $4.2 billion. As part of the agreement, Israeli investment firm FIMI would take control of a smaller ZIM shipping business with 16 vessels. FIMI would also oversee the government’s “Golden Share,” which gives Israel special rights over ZIM and the merger.
ZIM shareholders approved the deal in April, and the transaction is expected to close by the end of 2026. However, Israeli officials worry the smaller local shipping operation may not have enough ships to support the country during emergencies.
Hapag-Lloyd has told ZIM that it intends to prepare and submit a new proposal to the Israeli Government Companies Authority. The revised filing would seek the necessary approval for both the special state share arrangements and the pending merger.
What ZIM Retail Traders Are Saying
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the stock remained in ‘bearish’ territory.
A user said, “Buyout, no buyout… this company PRINTS money, fat divies incoming… and still way undervalued.”
Another user said, “I think the new CEO is deliberately lowballing expectations and getting ready for a huge Q3 blowout. It is very hard to calculate ZIM’s earnings based on current freight rates and come up with anything below roughly $8.X EPS for Q3. Yet the guidance seems to imply something closer to $5.”
ZIM stock has gained over 37% year-to-date.
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