Silver has finally broken past its 2011 peak of ~$48/oz in USD – but investors expecting fireworks may want to temper their excitement.
As Vivek Sharma, Head of Investments at Estee-Gulaq, points out, the shiny metal has delivered zero returns in 14 years despite all the noise.
In a LinkedIn post reacting to the surge in silver prices, Sharma warned that while the milestone seems significant, it’s more of a round trip than a rally.
“Silver has finally crossed its 2011 all-time high in USD,” he wrote. “It sounds exciting until you realize that means zero returns in 14 years. A full circle.”
Back in 2011, silver hit ~$48 before crashing to ~$13. Now, in late 2025, it’s hovering just below $50 again – with little long-term gain to show for it.
In India, silver has fared better nominally, with prices doubling over the past decade. But Sharma cautioned that the gains are largely due to INR depreciation, not actual asset performance. “That’s mostly the rupee weakening, not silver outperforming,” he noted.
What’s more alarming, Sharma said, is the retail frenzy gripping the market. Silver ETFs in India are trading at 5-10% premiums to their Net Asset Values (NAVs) – even while MCX silver futures were flashing red. “That’s not a good sign – it’s a sign of overheating,” he warned.
Some asset management companies (AMCs) have already paused lump-sum investments into silver-focused funds, likely in response to this speculative surge.
Sharma’s advice is clear: Avoid lump-sum bets. SIP in slowly. Let emotions and prices cool before entering.
“Frenzy and value rarely coexist,” he added. “The best time to buy is usually when no one’s talking about it.”