Analyst estimates point to rising revenue but deeper losses for Xpeng, while Xiaomi is expected to post modest sales growth alongside weaker profitability.
Retail sentiment has turned cautious on Xpeng and Xiaomi ahead of their quarterly earnings on Tuesday, despite both carmakers turning in strong July delivery numbers in China’s cutthroat electric vehicle market.
Xpeng delivered 36,717 vehicles last month, soaring 229% from a year earlier, the ninth consecutive month of deliveries exceeding 30,000, bringing the total to over 800,000.
Meanwhile, Xiaomi crossed the 30,000 milestone for the first time last month on the strength of its SU7 sedan, which has been flying off shelves since its launch, as well as the newly launched YU7 crossover, which undercuts Tesla’s Model Y by 10,000 yuan.
The SU7 has a starting price of 215,900 yuan, and the two models combined form the cornerstone of Xiaomi’s 2025 sales target of 350,000 vehicles.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘bearish’ for both Xpeng and Xiaomi, with message volume ‘high’ for Xpeng and ‘normal’ for Xiaomi.
Analysts at Koyfin expect Xpeng’s revenue to climb 14.1% year-on-year to $2.48 billion, though losses are projected to widen, with EBIT seen at a $160.57 million deficit compared with $143.45 million last year. GAAP EPS is forecast at a loss of $0.13 versus a $0.10 loss a year earlier.
Xiaomi’s revenue is expected to rise 4.3% to $15.98 billion, but profitability is expected to shrink sharply, with EBITDA projected down 22% to $1.6 billion and EBIT down 18.7% to $1.47 billion. GAAP EPS is expected to slip to $0.05 from $0.06.
Even with solid sales momentum, China’s EV industry is still feeling the aftershocks of a prolonged price war and is now under closer regulatory scrutiny, leaving investors cautious about how much longer the growth streak can last.
BYD, the market leader, posted its first monthly decline of 2025 in July, delivering 341,030 units compared with 377,628 in June, after steep price cuts earlier in the year.
Geely Automobile Holdings is also narrowing the gap with BYD after a 47% jump in first-half deliveries helped lift revenue 27% to 150.3 billion yuan ($21 billion), surpassing Volkswagen’s brand sales in China to rank second behind BYD.
China’s Passenger Car Association said 17 models saw price cuts in July, down from 23 a year earlier, as authorities push for “anti-involution” measures to reduce destructive price competition, according to a Bloomberg report.
Retail car sales fell 12% from June to 1.8 million units, though they rose 6.3% year-on-year, with officials expecting growth in 2025 despite scaled-back tax exemptions starting next year.
While Xpeng’s U.S. stock has risen 64% so far in 2025, Xiaomi’s U.S. stock jumped 53.7% over the same period.
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