Will Tesla Shareholders Approve Elon Musk’s Compensation Package? Here’s What Prediction Markets Show

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Data from popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show that the bets on the two platforms are now worth over $1.1 million.

  • Data from popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show that the bets on the two platforms are now worth over $1.1 million.
  • Multiple Tesla executives have also voiced support for Musk’s compensation package.
  • If Musk manages to achieve all his targets, Tesla’s market capitalization could rise to $8.5 trillion, from the current $1.52 trillion.

A decision on Tesla Inc. (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion compensation package will be made during the company’s annual shareholder meeting on Thursday afternoon. Prediction markets are abuzz with activity ahead of the announcement.

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Data from popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show that the bets on the two platforms are now worth over $1.1 million. While Kalshi volumes show bets worth more than $972,000, Polymarket bets had reached a total of over $184,000 at the time of writing.

What Are Prediction Markets Saying?

Data from Kalshi indicates a 92% probability of Musk’s compensation package being approved. Participants on Polymarket were even more optimistic, with data indicating a 96% probability of approval at the time of writing.

Kalshi prediction market bets on Elon Musk’s compensation package on Nov. 6 | Kalshi
Polymarket prediction market bets on Elon Musk’s compensation package on Nov. 6 | Polymarket

The results of the shareholder vote on Musk’s compensation package will be announced on Thursday afternoon.

Tesla shares were down more than 1% in Thursday’s opening trade. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the company trended in the ‘bearish’ territory at the time of writing.

Support For Musk

Musk’s proposed compensation package has received support from multiple Tesla executives, as well as prominent investors such as Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood and Baron Capital’s Ron Baron, alongside analysts like Wedbush Managing Director Dan Ives and Gary Black of The Future Fund.

Wood said in an interview on Thursday that proxy advisory firms opposing the deal, like Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), are not doing the “right kind of research” to understand what the package entails.

Tesla executives, including CFO Vaibhav Taneja, AI lead Ashok Elluswamy, and Vehicle Operations leader Hrushikesh Sagar, have all voiced support for Musk’s compensation package.

If Musk manages to achieve all his targets, Tesla’s market capitalization could rise to $8.5 trillion, from the current $1.52 trillion.

TSLA stock is up 14% year-to-date and 84% over the past 12 months.

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