There are many challenges in the path of Tejashwi Yadav becoming CM in 2025. He has to save his MY vote bank from Pappu Yadav and Owaisi. Also, we will have to move away from the image of ‘Jungle Raj’ and increase our social base by connecting ‘A to Z’ i.e. all sections.
Patna: The entire burden of the dream which Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has been struggling to fulfill for the last two decades, today rests on the shoulders of party supremo Lalu Yadav’s son Tejashwi Yadav. This is Sapna, the next Chief Minister of RJD after Rabri Devi. In the Bihar Assembly elections 2025, this big question is shaking both RJD and Tejashwi whether they will be able to get so many seats with the Grand Alliance that they can become the next Chief Minister of Bihar? The challenge before Tejashwi is not just to defeat the opponents, but to expand the party’s basic M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) equation to ‘A to Z’, and free his political legacy from the allegations of ‘Jungle Raj’ and establish it on the agenda of ‘development’.
Congress’ compulsion and Tejashwi’s leadership
Despite joining the Grand Alliance, Congress, after much reluctance, has accepted Tejashwi Yadav as the Chief Minister candidate. For Congress, accepting Tejashwi as a leader is both a compulsion and a necessity. In the last assembly elections, the performance of Congress while being in the Grand Alliance was very poor. It got 70 seats to contest, but it could win only 19 seats, whose winning strike rate was only 27 percent. In contrast, RJD contested 144 seats and won 75 seats (strike rate 52%) and the Left Front’s strike rate was 63%.
Political analysts believe that if Congress had performed like RJD, Tejashwi’s government would have been formed in 2020 itself. Due to this poor performance, Congress is forced to follow RJD in Bihar, although the game of ‘check-mate’ continues between the two.
Pappu Yadav’s challenge
The biggest internal challenge for Tejashwi is from Rahul Gandhi’s supporter and leader Pappu Yadav. This fight is about the supremacy of Yadav community in Bihar. The population of Yadavs in Bihar is about 15%, which has traditionally been the vote bank of Lalu Yadav. But Pappu Yadav has made a strong inroads into the Yadav votes of Seemanchal. Since Muslim votes are also decisive in Seemanchal, and Pappu Yadav has a hold on both the communities, it is natural for the Lalu family to be worried. Tejashwi is now facing the double challenge of keeping his ‘Yadav’ base united.
‘New investment’ of Muslim votes
The decision of victory or defeat of Seemanchal is completely in the hands of Muslim votes, and many contenders for this vote bank are in the fray. Grand alliance, Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan and the most dangerous Asaduddin Owaisi. Owaisi had surprised everyone in the last elections by winning five seats in Seemanchal, and all these seats belonged to the Grand Alliance in 2015. The investment of trust in Muslims that Tejashwi’s father Lalu Yadav had made by stopping Advani’s Rath Yatra in 1990 will no longer yield dividends. It is clear from Owaisi’s burglary that Tejashwi will have to make ‘some new investment’ to regain the trust of the Muslim community.
A journey from MY to A to Z
The biggest challenge before Tejashwi is not only to attract Muslim votes but also to prevent polarization of Hindu votes. For this, they will have to go beyond their goal of ‘M-Y’ (Muslim-Yadav) and implement their claim of connecting all the castes from ‘A to Z’ (A to Z).
- Beyond Yadavs: Engaging other OBC castes.
- Bringing back Dalits: Bringing back those Dalit votes who were once with RJD, but later left the party.
- If Tejashwi is not able to expand his social base, it will be difficult for him to fulfill his dream of becoming the Chief Minister.
double edged sword of inheritance
Tejashwi Yadav’s biggest strength is undoubtedly the political legacy he got from Lalu Yadav. This legacy gives them a ready-made party structure, a dedicated core vote bank and instant recognition. But this legacy is also their biggest weakness. Tejashwi has to prove among the public that his politics is different from his father’s ‘M-Y’ and ‘Jungle Raj’ politics and is the politics of development. He will have to prove that he is not just a successor, but a leader with a distinct identity on his own merits.