Brent crude oil prices surged to a five-month high, trading past $112 and up over 4 per cent at the time of filing this copy amid reports of an attack on Saudi Aramco facilities and concerns over shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil hit its highest level in 2026 on April 7 at approximately $138.21 per barrel, according to data sourced from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Times Now Digital spoke to Anant Ladha, Founder of Invest Aaj For Kal about the impact of rising oil prices on stock markets and more. Given below is a short excerpt of the exclusive interaction.
Q. US bond yields are rising, crude oil prices are surging, should retail investors in India be worried about losing more money going forward?
A. If we see historical data, biggest rallies in Indian markets have always come when there is a rising yield scenario, provided you are ready for some volatility and provided you are ready for some correction in the initial phase of the rising yields. Whenever interest rates rise what happens is usually FIIs and big money feel that if we can get fixed returns in the US market at an interest rate of 5.25% or maybe 5.5% we can lock in 30 years interest rate at high rates of interest. This is the initial mindset because of which we see some outflow from emerging markets and eventually that money goes in the debt markets of US economy. Eventually the equity market will always give you additional risk premium and when there is a requirement of additional risk premium because interest rates have already risen, equity markets have usually proven itself right and delivered good returns. So I feel I know that the US market has 40 trillion dollars of debt every year, 2 trillion dollars of interest is being getting increased or getting added to the debt and it’s a scary scenario in US markets and it’ll cripple US markets and all the markets where free money has flown. For example, Korean market or maybe Taiwan market where valuations are not in control, money is flowing at high valuations chasing the AI story. So probably these markets will get affected. But Indian market because of the interest rates, if we have a mindset of three to five years, eventually I feel it will be more or less positive for the Indian markets. So interest rate is not that big a risk if we see past trends of last 40 years. But at the same time, I have taken out data where crude has risen more than $95 per barrel in last 40 years. We have four or five such incidences and always next one year returns is negative. Crude is a big risk for the Indian stock market. India imports majority of crude and if crude prices are high, input cost of all the companies go for a toss and we see that it will directly impact the EPS growth rate and the earning profitability of the companies. Markets are slaves of earnings and if something is affecting earnings, it will affect equity markets as well. So crude is a bigger risk for Indian market as compared to interest rates, which are rising in the US. So we’ll have to understand this right now. Crude is trading past 110 dollars per barrel currently, so till the time we don’t see it going below 90 or 85 dollars per barrel, it will always be a headwind whenever market will try to rise.