The discussion of American bill has been going on for the last few days. Under which America will impose 500 percent tariff on those countries, importing Russian oil. The purpose of bringing this bill is to stop the export of Russian oil and weaken the Russian war program against Ukraine. The special thing is that India remains the biggest buyer of Russian oil. Currently, Russian oil stake in Indian crude oil basket is seen more than 40 percent. Because of which this American bill is being discussed in India.
But India also told America that it is not going to be afraid of this law of America. Russian oil figures are being given in India. At the same time, India is showing its strength to the whole world with Russia. Talking about the figures, India’s Russian oil imports in June reached the 11 -month high, which strengthened the continuous dominance of Moscow in New Delhi’s oil import basket. According to tanker data, in June, India’s total oil imports were 43.2 percent, including the remaining three suppliers – West Asian head Iraq, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.
Increased concern with US bill
This has happened at a time when concerns about a controversial bill in the US have come to light in India, which proposes to impose 500 percent tariffs on countries continuing business with Russia. India and China are the top importers of Russian crude oil, and New Delhi is interacting with American MPs to express its energy security and concerns about the bill. At a recent press conference in Washington, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said that India’s concerns and interests on energy have been “acquainted” Republican Senator Lindsay Graham, which is the main sponsor of the bill. In an interview with ABC News recently, Graham said that US President Donald Trump encouraged him to pursue the bill after the US Congress holiday.
American law will affect
It is yet to be seen whether this bill, about which Graham says that it will enable America to force Russia to negotiate to end the war in Ukraine, in its current form. If this happens, India will be forced to cut oil imports from Russia and increase imports from other supplies, which may increase the cost of imports. This can also create complications in India’s biggest trading partner America in the ongoing trade treaty talks with America. Currently, Indian refiners are adopting a waiting and surveillance approach on the matter, while strengthening Russian oil flow in India.
Russian oil imported from 2022
India depends on imports to meet about 88 percent of its crude oil needs, and Russia has been the mainstay of India’s oil imports for the last nearly three years. Russia began to relax the interested buyers on their oil after the Western countries abstained with Russian crude oil after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Indian refiner took advantage of the opportunity, due to which Russia – which was earlier a very small supplier of oil to India – became the biggest source of crude oil for India, displacing traditional Western Asian suppliers. While the discounts have been different over time, despite the limited restrictions on Western pressure and Russian oil trade ecosystem mechanisms, the flow of dandruff in India remains strong.
The boom in oil trade with Russia has also included the country in the list of India’s largest trading partners. India has said on its behalf that it is ready to buy oil from anyone who gives the best price, provided that oil is not banned. Certainly, there is no ban on Russian oil, but the US and its allies have imposed a price range of $ 60 per barrel, according to which Western shippers and insurers cannot participate in Russian oil trade if the price of crude oil of Moscow is above that level.
Why Russia is coming more crude oil
According to the vessel tracking data of the global commodity market analytics firm Capler, India imported 2.08 million barrels per day (BPD) of Russian crude oil, which is the highest since July 2024, and is 12.2 percent higher on a month-by-month basis. Sumit Ritolia, the leading research analyst at refining and modeling at Capler, said the Russian barrels remain highly competitive due to discounts, payment systems and logistics flexibility through alternative shipping and insurance networks. Despite the rising Western sanctions, Indian refiners have managed to maintain and even expand the purchase from Russia.
Ritolia said that except for any serious logistics or regulatory disruption, this trend is likely to continue in the coming months. He said that on the front, Russia will probably remain India’s largest crude oil supplier (35-40%), which has the support of price competition and technical-affidavit. However, if the West increases the enforcement of the secondary restrictions targeting the financial or shipping facility providers, this dominance may be under pressure. Such a scenario can either reduce Russian volume or force Indian refiner to demand more compliance safety measures.
Middle East got so much oil
Import from West Asia remains important, but it shows signs of increasing instability. Oil Import from Iraq – India’s second largest crude oil supplier – about 893,000 BPD (sequentially 17.2 percent) in June, followed by Saudi Arabia 581,000 BPD (sequentially stable) and UAE 490,000 BPD (6.5 percent above May). Despite losing market stake in the hands of Russia in recent years, West Asian suppliers-especially Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE-close proximity and credibility means that they will remain the main contributor to India’s crude oil imports. In June, Iraq’s stake in India’s oil imports was 18.5 percent, followed by Saudi Arabia 12.1 percent and the UAE stake was 10.2 percent. The US retained its position as India’s third largest supplier in June, which had about 303,000 BPD and market share of 6.3 percent.
Import may continue from Russia
According to Capler’s analysis, oil imports from West Asia are expected to be stable in the 35–40 percent range, and meanwhile India is expected to maintain its diversification efforts by exploiting additional quantities from Africa, Latin America and the US to adapt to refinery economics, balance geopolitical risk and increase energy security. Geophysical changes, freight transportation economics and refinery economics will continue to shape India’s source decisions.
American crude oil remains relatively expensive for Indian refiners, as it includes more freight and long journeys, and so far the limited scope of expansion has been seen. Until the freight cost does not become more favorable or diversification is promoted due to instability in other areas, the industry monitoring the industry says that it is unlikely that imports from the US and Latin America will increase significantly in the short term.