Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize? Most likely not, despite Trump blowing his own trumpet, multiple times, over how he has been key in solving several global conflicts, including the over 50-times-repeated claim of negotiating the India-Pakistan ceasefire understanding after the four-day conflict in May this year.
One thing appears almost certain: US President Donald Trump will not win no matter how much he believes he deserves it for solving “eight conflicts”. Experts widely agree that Trump won’t be the committee’s choice, at least not this year.
“No, it will not be Trump this year,” said Peter Wallensteen, a Swedish professor and expert on international affairs, in an interview with AFP news agency.
“But perhaps next year? By then the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis,” he added.
But the real question remains: who will win the prize?
The suspense over the much-awaited Nobel Peace Prize announcement ends 11 am (0900 GMT or 2:30 pm IST) on Friday when the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo announces the 2025 laureate.
The backdrop to this year’s award is grim with armed conflicts worldwide having reached an unprecedented level – Israel and Iran getting into a full-blown conflict amid the ongoing Israeli offensive in Gaza, India and Pakistan exchanging missiles and drones, Thailand-Cambodia border tensions that escalated to a major clash.
The previous year, 2024, saw the highest number of state-involved conflicts since Sweden’s Uppsala University began tracking global wars in 1946, according to AFP news agency.
Who are the top contenders for Nobel Peace Prize?
This year, a total of 338 individuals and organisations have been nominated for the coveted Nobel Peace Prize, though the list is kept sealed for 50 years. Eligible nominators include lawmakers, government officials, past laureates, certain academics, and Nobel committee members.
In 2024, the prize went to Nihon Hidankyo, the association of Japan’s atomic bomb survivors, for its work to eliminate nuclear weapons.
While there are no clear frontrunner in 2025, speculation is swirling around a few high-profile contenders. These are:
-Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a network of volunteers risking their lives to assist civilians amid war and famine;
-Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny;
-and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, known for its election monitoring.
“My hunch would probably just perhaps be for a not that controversial candidate this year,” AFP quoted Halvard Leira, director at the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs. He noted the committee’s recent trend of choosing “micro” efforts aligned with classic peace ideals – including human rights, democracy, freedom of the press and women.
Some suggest the committee may use this year’s Peace Prize to reaffirm its support for a global order increasingly challenged by leaders like Donald Trump. Potential picks in that vein include:
-UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres;
-the UNHCR;
-UNRWA, the Palestinian relief agency.
Others believe the committee might honour global justice or press freedom by recognising bodies like the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, or press watchdogs such as the Committee to Protect Journalists or Reporters Without Borders.
This year also Nobel Committee might surprise the world and pick someone no one expected, something history has shown time and again.