Lt Gen Ata Hasnain (Retd) warns Sir Creek could be India-Pakistan’s next flashpoint. He explains Pakistan’s strategic moves, China’s role, and why India’s surveillance and readiness make it fully prepared to defend the disputed estuary.
As Defence Minister Rajnath Singh stood before Indian soldiers in Bhuj on Dussehra, performing Shastra Puja and recalling the spirit of 1965, his words carried a sharp warning across the border.
“If Pakistan dares to act in the Sir Creek sector, the reply will be so strong that it will change both history and geography,” he declared, signalling India’s readiness amid growing tensions in the disputed 96-kilometre-long tidal estuary that separates Gujarat’s Rann of Kutch from Pakistan’s Sindh province.
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The minister’s remarks followed intelligence reports suggesting that Pakistan has been expanding its military infrastructure around Sir Creek — a sensitive zone that has long been a cartographic and strategic irritant between the two neighbours.
Against this backdrop, Lieutenant General Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) — one of India’s most respected strategic commentators — spoke exclusively to Asianet News English’s Heena Sharma on why Sir Creek could become the next big India-Pakistan flashpoint.
Sir Creek Is a Very Important Strategic Issue for India
Lt Gen Hasnain began by stressing both the economic and security dimensions of the dispute.
“You are absolutely correct in identifying the Sir Creek issue as a very important strategic issue for India’s national security,” he said. “Any territory lost or even the territory which is under our control at the moment — if we don’t look after that territory, there is always the danger of the exclusive economic zone linked to that territory going away from our influence.”
He explained that the estuarine region is not just a boundary line but a vital economic corridor, rich in fisheries, undersea minerals and shipping routes.
“So, this has its own economic connotations. But more than that, even more than that, is the security aspect,” he noted.
The terrain, he said, makes it uniquely challenging to defend.
“This is a broken area… crisscrossed by all kinds of rivulets which keep ports based upon tidal patterns. It’s an estuary with multiple channels,” Hasnain explained. “Pakistan, of course, has extended its claim to a certain area… while India follows the international principle that the midcourse of the current determines what the territorial division is. Pakistan does not believe that.”
Pakistan Is Testing the Waters
Lt Gen Hasnain believes that Islamabad’s current moves in Sir Creek are not accidental.
“It seems that Pakistan is attempting to test the waters,” he said. “Just by carrying out certain overtures like building up infrastructure or moving some troops into that area, they’re testing our responses to see what is the possible way that India is going to respond.”
He warned that this behaviour fits into a larger pattern of strategic provocation, especially at a time when Islamabad enjoys what he called a “newfound strategic importance” in global geopolitics.
“Pakistan has found newfound strategic importance in the international community based upon President Trump’s sudden love for Pakistan, so to say,” Hasnain observed. “It seems that Pakistan is attempting to test the waters… and also looking for international backing in potentially a small action, which may lead to the US backing Pakistan for it.”
China’s Shadow Over the Creek
Asked whether China has a role in the renewed tension, Hasnain acknowledged Beijing’s quiet but enduring influence.
“China does realise that India is an important nation for it from an economic angle,” he said, pointing out that Beijing’s slowing economy and its complicated relationship with Washington make India a vital, if uneasy, partner.
“It’s not as if China is looking to upset the apple cart,” Hasnain added, “but there are other ways of doing it — through Pakistan, through the proxy of Pakistan, keeping India under pressure.”
He painted a broader strategic picture: “If you have both ends — Ladakh, Kargil, Siachen, Kashmir and Sir Creek — all in ferment at any time, it means essentially your entire western front is on the brink. It is definitely in China’s interest to keep our gaze diverted towards the western front and not so much to the northern front.”
India Is Ready — We Don’t Need to Worry
Referring to Rajnath Singh’s Dussehra visit to Bhuj, Hasnain described it as a symbolic signal of India’s readiness.
“The presence of Mr. Rajnath Singh for the Dussehra celebrations with the troops in Bhuj was a notional symbolic act to project and tell people across the border that we are ready,” he said.
According to the former Corps Commander, India’s surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities have vastly improved over the years.
“India has upgraded itself very greatly in the last 10 to 12 years,” he said. “Today, satellite surveillance, maritime reconnaissance flights, drone surveillance — all of these are the order of the day. I don’t think we have anything to really worry about.”
He also reminded that the 1965 war began in this very region, adding historical weight to the current developments. “The war of 1965 did not start from Punjab or Kashmir. It actually started from here in Bhuj, right there on the coastline,” he recalled.
Talks and Terrorism Cannot Go Together
Could the Sir Creek dispute still be resolved diplomatically? Hasnain doesn’t think so.
“Sir Creek and Siachen were both termed as low-hanging fruit at one time… but the incorrigible attitude that Pakistan has displayed makes it difficult,” he said. “Talks and terrorism cannot go together. This also has become a part of that issue, and I don’t foresee a resolution anytime in the future.”
He added that the current nationalist fervour in India, coupled with the volatile geopolitical climate, makes any compromise politically untenable.
Pakistan’s Rising Strategic Confidence
In one of the most telling parts of the conversation, Lt Gen Hasnain dissected what he called Pakistan’s misplaced confidence.
“Pakistan’s rising strategic confidence comes from a couple of factors,” he said. “Turkey, the transactional support it is getting from Iran, the pact it has just signed with Saudi Arabia, and of course, the Chinese support — which continues around the clock, around the year. Geopolitically, Pakistan seems to be on a diplomatic high at the moment.”
But beneath this confidence, Hasnain said, lies domestic instability and a self-delusional military narrative.
“The internal security situation in Pakistan is not too good… Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Tehrik-e-Taliban problem, the Balochistan issue — all persist. The Pakistan army seems to be in a self-delusionary mode, convincing its people that it never lost in 1965 or 1971.”
India Is Doing the Right Thing
Summing up, Lt Gen Hasnain said India’s current stance — signalling readiness without escalation — is strategically sound.
“India is doing the right thing by sending out the right messages,” he said. “What we are doing at the moment, when talking about Operation Sindoor 2.0, is something we have not done in the past — that is narrative building. Telling the other side we are prepared. Try it and test us if you wish.”
As Rajnath Singh’s words reverberate across the Sir Creek estuary, Hasnain’s analysis serves as both a warning and reassurance — that while Pakistan may continue to “test the waters,” India’s forces are not just watching but ready.