The 19 rebel Trinamool Congress MPs will meet in New Delhi on Sunday in the presence of West Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari. The rebel MPs are likely to meet the Lok Sabha speaker on Monday.
While the rebel TMC MPs decide their future course of action, their decision to support the NDA may cause a perturbation within the BJP allies, especially Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde.
The Lok Sabha numbers
Notably, the Bharatiya Janata Party has 240 MPs in the Lok Sabha, 32 short of the majority mark. This gives a greater leverage to BJP allies in the Modi 3.0 govt with the Telugu Desam Party (16 seats), the Janata Dal (United) (12 seats) and the Shiv Sena (7 seats) playing the crucial role in keeping the government stable. The other NDA allies are Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 5 seats; Janata Dal (Secular) 2 seats; Janasena Party 2 seats; Rashtriya Lok Dal 2 seats; and Apna Dal (Soneylal), Asom Gana Parishad, AJSU Party, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), Nationalist Congress Party and Sikkim Krantikari Morcha, with one seat each.
If the 19 rebel TMC MPs merge with the BJP, the saffron partys tally in the Lok Sabha will rise to 259, just 13 short of the magic number. The BJP can get this even with the support of smaller allies with one or two seats. While the BJP is unlikely to take a decision that may hurt its allies, any unfair pressure tactics by the allies may not work once the merger happens.
Why BJP allies may turn anxious
The BJP allies, who may be thinking of arm-twisting the Narendra Modi government to get their demands fulfilled, may find themselves in troubled water, having lost the bargaining cards. The most affected ally may be the Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde. Out of all the allies of the Modi 3.0, its the Shiv Sena which is having a power tussle at the state level. Since the elevation of Devendra Fadnavis as the Maharashtra CM and Eknath Shinde serving as the Deputy Chief Minister, the Shiv Sena has thrown many tantrums over power sharing and the appointment of Guardian Ministers.
While the JDU, TDP, JSP and JDS are in sync with the BJP, they are unlikely to face any issue. However, Shinde may lose his trump card due to the TMC rebellion.
With the BJP no longer dependent on the Sena for political survival in Maharashtrathanks in part to the support of 41 MLAs from the Sunetra Pawar-led NCPShindes main bargaining power increasingly shifted to Delhi. The BJPs diminished reliance on allies at the Centre also means it is less bound by coalition compulsions when managing state-level power equations.