Bihar Election 2025 Opinion Poll: Political enthusiasts have intensified for the assembly elections to be held in Bihar 2025. Meanwhile, a fresh opinion poll released by Inkinsight has given a big message to all parties.
The most special thing in the survey was about the caste equation, which is considered to be the most deciding aspect of Bihar’s politics.
In Bihar politics, caste equations have always been deciding electoral victory and defeat. The NDA Yadav-Muslim vote bank of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal United (JDU) and other allies seems to be getting strong support in OBCs, EBC, SC and upper caste, while the Grand Alliance (RJD, Congress, Left parties) is trying to maintain its traditional vote bank.
If caste -based voting in Bihar, who will vote for whom?
According to the inkinsight opinion poll, the grand alliance is getting the support of 56.9%, SC 53.2% and Muslim 68.1% communities on caste basis. There itself On the other hand, the inclination of all other major caste groups is currently visible towards the NDA. 32.5% Yadav is also in support of NDA. At the same time, less than 25% Muslim voters are with NDA.
85.1% of people of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s caste Kurmi community are in support of NDA. Apart from this, 79.4% voters of Hindu upper caste are also seen in favor of NDA.
Similarly, 66.2%of Koiri/Kushwaha community, 59.2%of Dusadh/Pasi community, non-Yadav OBC and 57.3%of the most backward class, and 52.6%of other Scheduled Castes (SC) are also seen in support of NDA.
Interestingly, the Yadav community, which is generally considered to be the traditional vote bank of the Grand Alliance, has also spoken of voting for the NDA. This figure can cause anxiety for the grand alliance.
Bihar Survey: Complete analysis of caste equations
| Ethnic group | Support NDA | Support to Grand Alliance |
| Yadav | 32.5% | 56.9% |
| Muslim | under 25 | 68.1% |
| Scheduled Tribes (ST) | Less than 40% | 53.2% |
| Kurmi (CM of CM Nitish) | 85.1% | Very little |
| Koiri/Kushwaha | 66.2% | Less than 30% |
| Dusadh/Pasi | 59.2% | Around 35% |
| Other non-Yadav OBC/EBCC | 57.3% | Less than 30% |
| Other SC Group | 52.6% | Less than 35% |
According to the survey, who can become the government in Bihar?
According to Inkinsight, the NDA seems to get a clear lead, while the opposition grand alliance is not able to show anything special. 48.9% of people are in support of NDA, while the Grand Alliance is expected to get 35.8% of the votes. These figures confirm the results of the first survey in the month of May, which makes it clear that the hold of NDA in the public remains strong.
Trend of women and elderly
54.7% of women are in favor of NDA, while only 31.2% of women gave priority to the grand alliance. 53% of the voters in the age group above 60 are in support of the NDA, which shows that the elderly voters are also satisfied with the ruling parties.
If this opinion poll is a sign of upcoming trends, the NDA may once again get the mandate to form a government in the 2025 election. Elections are due in 243 assembly constituencies in Bihar in November-December this year.