Indian markets ended higher for the week ended June 19, despite profit booking in the final session after a five-day rally. The NIFTY50 fell 0.6% on Friday to close at 24,013, while the SENSEX declined 0.7% to 76,802. However, both benchmarks still gained around 1.7% for the week, helped by a sharp fall in crude oil prices earlier in the week.
The broader market outperformed the benchmarks, indicating that buying interest remained healthy beyond index heavyweights. Midcap and smallcap stocks continued to attract flows during the week with both Midcap 150 and Small cap 250 indices gaining over 3% respectively. The outperformance remains important to track, as it reflects whether risk appetite remains intact amid volatility in crude oil, the rupee and global markets.
Sectorally, Defence (+6.6%), Consumer Durables (+6.4%), Tourism (+6.0%) and Real Estate (+5.5%) led the rally, reflecting strong risk appetite. IT (-1.3%) was the only sectoral loser, as Accenture’s cautious commentary renewed concerns about the pace of recovery in global technology spending.
️Spotlight: Defence was the strongest theme of the week, with the Defence Index rising by 6.5%. This was driven by renewed optimism surrounding India’s defence manufacturing efforts. The indigenous defence production rose 15.6% year-on-year to reach a record ₹1.78 lakh crore in FY26. Private-sector contributions also reached a record high of ₹42,000 crore, accounting for 24% of total production. Meanwhile, defence exports reached a record high of ₹38,424 crore during the same period.
Stock-specific action was sharp. Paras Defence surged by 24% over two sessions, and BEL, GRSE, HAL, Mazagon Dock, Bharat Dynamics, Cochin Shipyard and Data Patterns also moved higher.
️Key events in focus: After the long weekend, Wall Street returns on Monday with a busy schedule of earnings and macro data. The main event will be the release of the May Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report on Thursday, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Following the hawkish tone adopted by the Fed last week, any increase in inflation could cause U.S. bond yields and the dollar to rise, putting pressure on emerging-market flows.
US earnings will be in focus with FedEx reporting its earnings on Tuesday followed by Micron Technology on Wednesday, with investors closely watching its outlook on memory-chip demand and AI-linked spending.
️Crude oil: Oil prices cooled sharply through the week, with Brent declining around 8% as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal eased concerns over supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent slipped below $80 per barrel during the week, touching its lowest level since the conflict began, as the prospect of ships resuming transit raised expectations of normalising oil flows. However, the move remains highly headline-driven. Brent saw brief rebounds whenever doubts emerged over the durability of the agreement, underlining that the Strait of Hormuz situation will remain the main trigger for crude next week.
Mark your calendars: Indian markets will remain shut on Friday, June 26, for Muharram.
Market breadth
Market breadth improved during the week, supporting the recovery in the broader indices. The share of NIFTY50 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average rose to around 55% by June 19, from nearly 36% at the start of the week.The improvement suggests that buying extended beyond a handful of heavyweight stocks, in line with the outperformance seen in midcaps and smallcaps.
Foreign investors positioning
Foreign investors continued to remain on the selling side in the cash market, offloading equities worth around ₹43,000 crore so far in June. This follows selling of nearly ₹55,963 crore in May, indicating that foreign flows have remained cautious despite the recent recovery in the NIFTY50.
NIFTY50 outlook
NIFTY50 ended the week at 24,013 after facing selling pressure near the 24,200 zone. This area coincides with a falling trendline from the April high, making it the immediate hurdle for the index. The inability to sustain above this level on Friday shows that bulls still need follow-through buying to extend the recovery.
A decisive close above 24,100 would strengthen the near-term setup and open the way towards 24,570, followed by the 200-day EMA near 24,490. On the downside, the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, placed around 23,715 and 23,815 respectively, form the immediate support zone.