Even before the New Year arrives, a big warning has been received. The country is going to face a big problem next year. This difficulty is related to the economy. A report says that in the next year i.e. 2026, India may have to go through the most difficult phase of global trade on the export front. The report also predicts that India will not be able to meet its export target of one trillion dollars by the end of the current financial year.
It has been estimated that India’s exports may see a growth of only 3 percent. Due to which it will be difficult to achieve the country’s export target. The special thing is that there is no trade deal between India and America yet. Also, America has imposed a tariff of 50 percent on exports to India. While the talks between the two countries are stuck, it seems that there is no possibility of any reconciliation between the two any time soon.
On the other hand, given the kind of environment prevailing in the world and the kind of approach adopted by the countries of the world, it may become difficult for India to export in the coming years. Let us also tell you who has given this warning?
Target of one trillion dollars will be missed
Economic research institute Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) estimates that the country’s goods and services exports are expected to increase by three percent to reach about $ 850 billion in the financial year 2025-26. This means that India’s export target of one trillion dollars in the current financial year may be missed. According to GTRI, there is continuous pressure on goods exports due to global adverse conditions, weak demand and increasing protectionism.
Due to which India will fall far short of its export target of US $ 1 trillion for the financial year 2026. Speaking to ANI, GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said that the momentum required to achieve this ambitious target is not being achieved, especially in the area of goods exports. Total exports had reached $825 billion in the financial year 2024-25. In this, export of goods was 438 billion dollars and export of services was 387 billion dollars.
You may have to face the most difficult times
GTRI said that in 2026, the country’s exports may have to face the most difficult environment of global trade so far. The Economic Research Institute said that at a time when India is trying to increase exports, increasing protectionism in developed economies, declining global demand and new climate-related trade barriers are coming together. GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said that as a result, the challenge will be to maintain the position more than to expand exports.
He said that exports of goods are likely to remain almost stable in the financial year 2025-26, because of weak global demand and new US tariff pressures. At the same time, export of services may be slightly more than 400 billion dollars. With this, total exports can reach approximately 850 billion dollars. Srivastava said that the external environment is deteriorating rapidly. He described Europe as a different but equally costly challenge.
The European Union will implement its Carbon Border Adjustment System (CBAM) from January 1, 2026. With this, carbon tax will be effectively implemented on imports. GTRI suggested that the government should urgently review the performance of its free trade agreements (FTAs) sector-wise to ensure that they are actually promoting exports and integrating Indian companies into global value chains.
Agreements with big trading partners necessary
He said that unless India signs major trade agreements with major partners, there is no possibility of a sharp jump in exports. He said that I think we will be able to do this only after a trade agreement with America and European Union. It will probably happen next year, not this year. Although overall export growth remains slow, Srivastava pointed to early signs of geographical diversification in India’s trade data.
There has been a sharp decline in exports to the US in recent months, but there has been an increase in exports to other markets. He said that we have seen that our exports to America have decreased by 20.7 percent between May and November. But during this period our exports to the rest of the world have increased by 5.5 percent. This means that diversification has already started on a small scale.
we have to do something different
He warned that expanding into new markets will not be enough unless India also changes the products it sells abroad. Srivastava said that for more diversification, for more exports to these countries, we also have to pay attention to the diversity of our export products. At present, there is a need to include more mid to high tech products in our export portfolio.
Why is there pressure on the rupee and how will it reduce?
Srivastava also expressed a cautious view on multilateral groups and global economic changes. Regarding BRICS, he said that BRICS is not a unit like Europe or ASEAN. It is a loose group of countries and its agenda is largely driven by China. He further said that India does not support all the agendas of BRICS, but only a limited agenda.
Commenting on the rupee, Srivastava said that the pressure on the currency is largely due to the global monetary policy. He said that a large part of the rupee’s decline depends on how America changes its interest rates. He also said that better performance in exports will help in reducing pressure on the currency.
role of wto
He urged India to take a more assertive stance in the World Trade Organization (WTO), arguing that the organization has failed to deliver meaningful results for decades. Srivastava said that apart from the Trade Facilitation Agreement, almost nothing has happened in the WTO in the last 25 years. He also said that the organization has deviated from its original purpose. India should ask WTO members to focus more on the trade agenda, which is the core part of WTO. Despite the slowdown in exports, Srivastava took an optimistic stance on domestic growth. He said that the domestic economy is doing well. GDP figures tell a lot; Low inflation figures also show the same. The only pressure on GDP will be from the export side.