Vinicius Junior: Can Real Madrid Star Bounce Back From a €30 Million Market Value Drop?

Vinicius Junior begins the new LaLiga season with a €30m redemption mission after his most disappointing year at Real Madrid. From Ballon d’Or contender to undervalued star, the Brazilian aims to reclaim his status, and place among football’s elite.

Twelve months ago, Real Madrid star Vinicius Junior was the golden boy of world football — a Champions League match-winner, a Ballon d’Or hopeful, and the most valuable player on the market. Today, the Brazilian forward finds himself on the cusp of a comeback, fighting to reclaim the status and sparkle that once seemed untouchable.

From Ballon d’Or Contender to Season of Struggles

The phrase “I’ll do it 10 times if necessary” — once a statement of ambition — became an ironic refrain during Vini’s most disappointing season since breaking through at Real Madrid. The Ballon d’Or dream, which seemed within reach, slipped away. His performances faltered, his numbers dipped, and the confidence that defined him appeared shaken.

A year ago, Transfermarkt valued Vinicius at an eye-watering €200 million. Now, that figure stands at €170 million — a €30 million drop, making him the second most undervalued player in the world after Phil Foden. It’s a staggering fall for someone who not long ago shared top billing with Erling Haaland in the “most valuable player” rankings.

The Numbers Behind the Drop

The decline isn’t just symbolic — it’s measurable.

Phil Foden: €100m (-€40m)

Vinicius Junior: €170m (-€30m)

Martin Odegaard: €85m (-€25m)

Dusan Vlahovic: €35m (-€25m)

For Vini, the 2024/25 season marked the end of an upward trajectory. He went from scoring in the Champions League final to losing his guaranteed place after Xabi Alonso took over before the FIFA Club World Cup 2025. The change wasn’t just about form — it was about confidence, rhythm, and the heavy weight of expectations.

A Turning Point: The Ballon d’Or Gala

Many close to the Brazilian believe the Ballon d’Or gala last year was the moment his season turned. Going into the event, he was at the peak of his valuation. But leaving empty-handed, after months of hype, seemed to dent his momentum.

Since then, the rankings have shifted. Kylian Mbappe, two years older, now sits €10 million ahead in market value. Vinicius, once the face of Madrid’s next generation, has been pushed to fifth place in the global rankings.

The odds tell their own story. Where the faith remains is in his ability to find the back of the net again. Bookmakers have priced him at 1.91 to score 14 or more goals in LaLiga this season — a figure that would put him close to his best seasons (15 goals in both 2021/22 and 2023/24). In those campaigns, Real Madrid lifted both LaLiga and the Champions League.

The Road Back

For Vinicius, the mission is clear. This isn’t just about silencing critics or boosting market value — it’s about delivering for himself and for the fans who have stood by him.

He starts this LaLiga season not just as a winger, but as a man chasing redemption. Thirty million euros’ worth of redemption, to be exact. And if history has shown anything, it’s that Vini thrives when he has something to prove.

Whether he can turn a year of disappointment into a season of triumph is a question only the months ahead can answer. But one thing is certain — the world will be watching.

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