UN has made estimates regarding India’s GDP growth.
India’s economy is the fastest growing economy in the world. The world is surprised to see India’s speed in the year 2025 because America has imposed 50 percent tariff on India. But the present government reduced the impact of tariffs by increasing consumption in the country and giving relief to the common people by cutting taxes. But this is not going to happen in the year 2026. The UN estimates that the impact of the tariffs will be visible this year and India’s growth rate is expected to be lower by 2025. Even after that, India will be the fastest growing country in the world. That too at a time when there will be a decline in the growth rate of the entire world. Strong consumption rates and government spending in the year 2026 may prove effective in reducing the impact of this tariff. Let us also tell you what kind of report has been presented by the UN.
Low growth forecast in 2026
The United Nations has estimated that India’s GDP growth rate could be 7.4 percent in 2025. The special thing is that this speed is much higher than other countries of the world. On the other hand, there will be a decline in the year 2026 and the figure will stop at 6.6 percent. Despite that, India will be in a much better position compared to other countries of the world. The main reason for the decline in GDP growth rate in the year 2026 is the 50 percent tariff imposed by America on India’s exports. However, the United Nations has said in its latest report ‘World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026’ that India’s growth is supported by strong compensation and government investment, which will reduce the adverse impact of high tariffs imposed by the US to a great extent. The report said that recent tax reforms and easing of monetary policy should provide additional support in the near future.
Impact of American tariffs will be visible
The United Nations has estimated the growth rate of India’s economy to be 6.7 percent for 2027. The UN says that if the current rates remain in place, the tariffs imposed by the US could have a negative impact on export performance in 2026, as about 18 per cent of India’s total exports come from the US market. The UN report said that although the tariffs may adversely affect some product categories, key exports such as electronics and smartphones are expected to be exempted. Additionally, this impact is expected to be partially offset by strong demand from other key markets including Europe and the Middle East. On the supply side, continued expansion in the manufacturing and service sectors will remain a key driver of growth during the forecast period, the report said.
How will the rupee move?
Regarding the rupee, the United Nations said the Indian currency remained stable against the US dollar in the first half of the year due to widespread dollar weakness. However, in the second half, the Indian Rupee declined slightly due to stronger than expected growth in the US and ongoing trade negotiations. Portfolio withdrawals and high tariffs imposed by the US further extended the decline in the Indian Rupee. Nevertheless, India’s strong economic performance is expected to support the country’s currency in the near future, the UN report said.
Inflation will increase in South Asia
Regarding South Asia, the report said that the economic outlook of the region remains strong due to strong private consumption and public investment. Inflation declined significantly across the region in 2025, and rates in most economies remained at or below central bank targets and long-term averages, the report said. According to the report, average consumer price inflation is expected to increase from an estimated 8.3 percent in 2025 to 8.7 percent in 2026, which could be 3.2 percent in Nepal, 4.1 percent in India and 35.4 percent in Iran.
How can the global economy be?
Meanwhile, the report said that the global economic outlook is surrounded by considerable economic uncertainties, changing trade policies and persistent fiscal challenges. It says that geopolitical tensions and financial risks further increase these pressures, thereby weakening the global economy. In 2025, a sharp increase in tariffs by the United States created new trade tensions, although the absence of widespread conflict helped limit immediate disruption to international trade. The report further said that continued macroeconomic policy support is expected to mitigate the impact of high tariffs, but growth in trade and overall activity is likely to slow in the near future.