Ex-diplomat Mahesh Sachdev states Trump’s approval ratings are at an all-time low, with most Americans against the Iran war. Trump faces a constitutional hurdle for continuing the war and a real risk of impeachment, Sachdev notes.
Popularity of US President Donald Trump is waning with approval ratings at its lowest, according to former diplomat Mahesh Sachdev, who notes that with two-thirds of Americans not approving of a continuation of the war on Iran, Trump faces the risk of being impeached. In an interview with ANI, Sachdev said that Trump also faces a constitutional roadblock, as the US President now has to get approval of Congress for further continuation of the war.
Trump’s Domestic Woes and Impeachment Risk
“The growth rate of the first quarter has fallen to 0.5 per cent, which is much lower than the previous 4.5 per cent. Furthermore, the President’s approval ratings in the United States have fallen drastically and are currently at their lowest point. In particular, more than two-thirds of Americans do not approve of a continuation of the war,” he said.
Sachdev further noted that while the US Congress has a Republican majority, many Republicans and most Democrats are not in favour of continuing the war because midterm elections are only seven months away. “Trump also faces a constitutional difficulty. According to the American Constitution, the President has the power to wage wars outside the country, but within 60 days of initiating conflict, he must obtain Congressional approval. The war has already lasted 40 days, and with five days of the pause already passed, only about 15 days remain. If he wants to continue the war, he will need to go to Congress. While Congress has a Republican majority, many Republicans and most Democrats are not in favour of continuing the war because midterm elections are only seven months away,” he said.
Sachdev further said that if the conflict continues, Trump may be at risk of getting impeached. “Continued conflict may negatively impact Republican candidates. If the President loses his majority in both houses of Congress, there is a real danger that he may face impeachment, particularly regarding the Epstein files, where he and his associates have been mentioned multiple times. All these factors together mean Trump faces significant domestic and logistical challenges in prosecuting the war,” he said.
He further said that such factors may finally coalesce into a war of attrition. “These factors may finally coalesce into either a war of attrition, an undeclared ceasefire with low-intensity sporadic attacks, or a sudden declaration of victory followed by a withdrawal. Regarding weapon shipments to Iran, Trump has warned that nations doing so will face major problems,” he said.
China’s Alleged Involvement and Motivations
Sachdev then said that there are credible reports and circumstantial evidence suggesting substantive Chinese involvement on the Iranian side. “There are credible reports and circumstantial evidence suggesting substantive Chinese involvement on the Iranian side. To understand the background, UN Security Council Resolution 2231, passed in 2015, imposed prohibitions on supplying Iran with weapons. While the prohibitions on weapons ended in 2020 and the restrictions on missiles ended in 2023, the resolution contained a “snapback” clause. Last year, the E3 countries–Britain, France, and Germany–requested a snapback, citing Iran’s violation of IAEA norms. Technically, the sanctions on weapon and missile supplies are back in place,” he said.
Supplying Weapons via Third Countries
The fomer diplomat further said that China may be supplying weapon systems, particularly air defence systems and missile fuel through third countries like North Korea. “There are reports that China may be supplying weapon systems, particularly air defense systems and missile fuel, through third countries like North Korea to avoid being seen as violating restrictions. Last week, President Trump suggested imposing 50 percent tariffs on exports from countries that provide weapons to Iran. China, for its part, has denied these reports. Interestingly, President Trump recently thanked China for playing a positive role in persuading Iran to come to the negotiating table,” he said.
“China is Iran’s largest trading partner, with over 90 percent of Iranian crude exports going to China. They are also believed to supply the rocket fuel necessary for Iran’s missile production,” he added.
Beijing’s Diplomatic Calculus
Sachdev said that China would probably want to oblige the US in exchange for the lowering of technical and economic sanctions or a reduction in tariffs. “China’s motivation to play a part in negotiations likely stems from the upcoming summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping. Beijing would like to oblige the United States in exchange for the lowering of technical and economic sanctions or a reduction in tariffs. However, the failure of the negotiations in Islamabad and reports of continued Chinese support for Iranian air defences suggest that this conflict is entering a complicated new chapter,” he said.
Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei on Sunday said that the recent meeting with US officials was the longest round of negotiations they have had in the past year. (ANI)
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by Asianet Newsable English staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)