Toyota Warns Higher US Tariff Impact For FY26: Retail Sees No Reason To Cheer

Toyota now expects a 1.4 trillion yen impact from U.S. tariffs for fiscal year 2026, a 1.2 trillion yen increase from the effect reflected in the previous forecast.

Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) on Thursday warned of a significant rise in the negative impact from U.S. tariffs on its financials for the fiscal year, nearing $10 billion.

“Concerning the impact of U.S. tariffs, in light of the Japan-U.S. agreement, we have now factored in the full-year effect. As a result, we are expecting a 1.4 trillion yen ($9.5 billion) impact, a 1.2 trillion yen increase from the impact reflected in the previous forecast,” the company said.

Japan and the U.S. inked a trade deal last month, which includes lowering tariffs on Japanese car imports to 15% from a combined 27.5%. However, the U.S. has not announced a timeline for the automobile tariff changes. Toyota expects lowered tariff for exports from Japan to kick in from August.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the stock trended in the ‘bearish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume rose from ‘extremely low’ to ‘low’ levels.

TM’s Sentiment Meter and Message Volume as of 8:15 a.m. ET on Aug. 7, 2025 | Source: Stocktwits

The company on Thursday warned of lower operating income for fiscal year 2026 due to U.S. tariffs. Toyota now expects full-year 2026 operating income of 3.2 trillion yen ($21.73 billion), below its previous forecast of 3.8 trillion yen and margin of 6.6%, down from its previous estimate of 7.8%.

Toyota, however, continues to expect 48.5 trillion yen in sales revenue for the fiscal year, as it previously said.

Toyota on Thursday also pinned lower operating profit in the first quarter through the end of June to a negative impact of 450 billion yen from U.S. tariffs. The company’s first-quarter operating income came in at 1.2 trillion yen, marking a decrease of 0.1 trillion yen from the corresponding period of its previous fiscal year.

Sales revenue was 12.25 trillion yen, up from the 11.84 trillion yen recorded in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.

Separately, Toyota on Thursday also said it plans to acquire land in the Teihoucho area of Toyota City, Aichi Prefecture, Japan, to establish a new vehicle manufacturing plant.

The automaker said that operations at its new plant will start in the early 2030s, and the models that will be made at the plant will be determined in the future. The move is part of the company’s intent to maintain production capacity of 3 million vehicles in Japan, it said.

TMstock is down by 5% this year but up 10% over the past 12 months.

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Exchange Rate: 1 Japanese Yen= 0.0068 USD<

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