Inflation Rate: A relief news has come out about the inflation rate in the country. The main inflation in India is expected to be below the target of 4 percent of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the next two quarters due to a decrease in prices of darus, favorable base and food products. This information was given in a new report. According to reports by Carey Ratings, the recent softening in inflation has come mainly due to a decrease in food prices and the consumer price index (CPI) inflation has come down to 2.1 percent in June 2025, which is the lowest level since January 2019.
The report said that inflation rates are expected to be low in the near future, but it may start growing from the third quarter and may cross the 4 percent level when the base effect is low in the last quarter of the current financial year. The Ratings Agency for FY 26 hopes that the consumer price index inflation will be approximately 3.1 percent on an average, lower than the RBI’s 3.7 percent estimate.
Estimates of increasing 4.5% inflation in FY 27
Cayrej Ratings said in its report that due to low base in FY 26, inflation in FY 27 is expected to increase by about 4.5 percent. In June, the cause of the heavy fall in inflation was declined to inflation in food and beverages including vegetables, pulses, spices and meat. However, the prices of edible oils and fruits continued to inflation in double digits. Due to India’s dependence on imports, high prices of edible oil remain a matter of concern and a recent cut in customs and good sowing of kharif will help reduce pressure in the coming months.
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RBI meeting
According to the report, RBI The upcoming August monetary policy may keep the rates unchanged in the meeting. American With the aggressive stance of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the dollar, the central bank can adopt a weight and watch outlook to assess the impact of the earlier rates. Despite the global challenges, the position of India’s external sector remains strong and the foreign exchange reserves are at $ 695 billion and in FY 26, the current account deficit is estimated to be only 0.9 percent of the GDP.