New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is closing in on a Rajya Sabha milestone that no single political party has achieved since the Congress, led by former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, held a majority in the House in 1986. While the it did not secure a majority on its own in the Lok Sabha in the 2024 general elections, it is now within striking distance of the simple majority mark in the Upper House.
The immediate boost is expected to come from West Bengal, where by-elections for three Rajya Sabha seats are scheduled for July 24. The BJP is expected to win all three seats. The party is in power in the state and has enough numbers in the Assembly to secure victory without facing any major hurdle.
The vacancies were created after three former Trinamool Congress MPs resigned from the Upper House and later joined the BJP. Once the party wins all three seats, its tally in the house will move within six seats of the simple majority mark.
Closest a single party has come since 1986
With the present strength of the Rajya Sabha, a party needs 123 members for a simple majority. After the expected gains in West Bengal, the BJP will still be short of that number, but the shortfall will come down to just six seats.
The last time a single political party had the required numbers in the Rajya Sabha was in 1986, when the Congress, led by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, enjoyed a majority in the House. Although the BJP has not reached that position on its own, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) holds a comfortable advantage with a combined strength of around 152 members in the Upper House.
All eyes on the Monsoon Session
The numbers in Parliament have changed ahead of the Monsoon Session, and it has given the NDA a stronger position after following defections from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Uddhav Thackeray-led faction of the Shiv Sena.
The government is also expected to push politically important constitutional amendment bills in the coming months. Delimitation and the Women’s Reservation Bill are among the proposals expected to dominate the political agenda ahead of the upcoming session.
Any Constitutional Amendment Bill requires the support of at least two-thirds of the members present and voting. If all members participate in voting, the two-thirds mark in the Rajya Sabha comes to 166 members. At present, the NDA does not have those numbers on its own.
NDA still short of two-thirds support
Although the NDA is below the two-thirds threshold, experts suggest that support from some regional parties, or even abstentions during voting, could help it secure the numbers needed to pass crucial legislation.
The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which has eight Rajya Sabha members, has recently distanced itself from the Congress-led INDIA bloc. Sources say that the party could either support such legislation or stay away from voting.
With four members in the Upper House, the YSR Congress is also expected to back the government on proposed legislation, including a possible Delimitation Bill.
The Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which has five members in the House, has consistently supported women’s reservation over the years. Political observers believe the party could either vote in favour of such legislation or choose not to participate in the voting process.
The NDA may also receive support from the lone Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) MP in the Rajya Sabha. Independent MP Parimal Nathwani is also expected to back the alliance. He had secured his Rajya Sabha election from Jharkhand with the support of the BJP.
With the BJP moving closer to the simple majority mark and the NDA seeking support from regional parties for the bills, the Rajya Sabha numbers are likely to play an important role during the Monsoon Session of Parliament.