Sensex reached its peak after about 14 months i.e. on 27th November. On the same day, Sensex also crossed the figure of 86 thousand for the first time. But by the time the market closed, the Sensex again came to the level of 85 thousand. Once again Sensex got a chance to cross 86 thousand. On December 1, the Sensex not only crossed 86 thousand points but also established its new lifetime high. But there was selling during the trading session and the stock market closed with a decline. Since then till now the Sensex has not seen the figure of 86 thousand points again.
The special thing is that during this period the trend of both rise and fall continued, but could not reach the level of 86 thousand points. The surprising thing is that on December 9, the Sensex went below the level of 84 thousand points. The interesting thing is that for the last one and a half month, Sensex is stuck between 84 and 85 thousand points. If we talk about today itself, a rise of more than 350 points was seen in Sensex. It was expected that after two consecutive days of decline, the Sensex would not only recover but would also create a new record. But this could not happen. Sensex is swinging between 84 and 85 thousand points.
Now the big question is what are the reasons due to which Sensex is not reaching beyond 86 thousand points. Even if he is reaching, he is not able to stay there. According to experts, selling by foreign investors, fall in rupee, fiscal deficit, delay in trade deal with America and reduction in FDI are the five villains, which are preventing the Sensex from reaching the level of 86 thousand. Even if the Sensex crosses the core level, these five pull it down again. Let us try to understand these five reasons in detail.
Sensex trend of last 10 days
Source: Yahoo Finance
Selling by foreign investors
Foreign investors are continuously withdrawing money from the stock market. On Tuesday also, FIIs sold Rs 3,760.08 crore. In the current year, foreign investors have withdrawn Rs 1.55 lakh crore from the stock market. If we talk only about the month of December, then foreign investors have sold Rs 11,924 crore from the stock market. Because of which the stock market is not getting any support at all. Whereas DII’s investment of Rs 28,552.88 crore in the current month has also not worked.
Big fall in rupee
On the other hand, the fall of rupee has also caused huge damage to the stock market. In the current year, the value of one dollar has not only crossed Rs 90, but once it seemed that it will also touch the level of Rs 91. In the current year, the rupee has declined by more than 5 percent against the dollar. Due to which the rupee has also become the worst performing currency in the whole of Asia against the dollar. This is also a reason due to which the sentiment of the stock market has suffered a lot.
decrease in fdi
According to government data released last week, FDI in India increased by 18 percent to $ 35.18 billion during April-September this financial year, while investment coming from the US more than doubled to $ 6.62 billion in the first half of this financial year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) during April-September of financial year 2024 was $ 29.79 billion. In the September quarter of 2025-26, investment increased by more than 21 percent compared to the previous year and reached $16.55 billion. Whereas compared to the first quarter of the current financial year, there has been a decline of more than 11 percent. This is the reason why the country’s stock market is witnessing a decline. Experts estimate that the figures for the third quarter may be even weaker on the FDI front. During the last financial year, FDI equity inflows were $50.01 billion, while total FDI was $80.6 billion.
Increase in fiscal deficit
On the other hand, the main reason for the decline in the stock market is the increase in fiscal deficit. If we look at the figures, the country’s fiscal deficit increased to 52.6 percent in the first seven months of the year. This means that the government has already spent more than 50 percent of the target. In the same period last year, the country’s fiscal deficit was 46.5 percent. Earlier, the government had fixed the fiscal deficit target for this financial year at 4.4 percent of the country’s GDP.
Delay in trade deal with America
On the other hand, the biggest drawback for the stock market is the delay in the trade deal with America. At present, 50 percent tariff is imposed on India. Which is highest compared to other countries of the world. Now Trump has threatened to impose tariff on Indian Basmati rice also. Although trade talks are about to start between India and America, there is still a lot of uncertainty. According to experts, until a trade deal is made between the two countries, the stock market will not see the rally that investors have been expecting for a long time.
What do experts say?
According to Anuj Gupta, Director of Wealth Global Research, these are the main reasons for not having a big rally in the stock market. The first major reason is the delay in the trade deal. Due to which, pressures like selling of rupees and foreign investors are being seen. Due to which more decline is being seen in the stock market. Its effect is also putting pressure on the rupee. In such a situation, investors may have to wait a little for the stock market to rise.