Amid increasing geopolitical tensions, the dwindling fleet of advanced fighter aircraft in India raises significant concerns for national security officials.
Over two months after Operation Sindoor (7-10 May), the Indian security apparatus appears uncertain about the urgent need to procure next-generation fighter squadrons. The outcomes of this four-day air combat exercise have intensified scrutiny of India’s air power capabilities, particularly in light of the absence of fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) and the pressing requirement to address the combined air threats posed by China, Turkey, and Pakistan during the operation.
Why Situation Is Urgent For India
As tensions persist along the Sino-Indian border in Ladakh, India cannot afford to wait for another confrontation, whether minor or major. With China already possessing FGFA, it is critical for India to recognise the necessity of enhancing the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) capabilities before a crisis arises. Although the IAF has been advised to await the fruition of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program, its delivery is projected to take at least a decade.
The urgency is further compounded by Pakistan’s plans to acquire Chinese J-35 FGFA later this year, alongside support from China and Turkey for the Pakistani military, placing immense pressure on Indian defence leaders to expedite the induction of FGFA.
In addition to the FGFA issue, the IAF faces a significant shortfall in its medium fighter fleet. A government decision made over a decade ago to procure 120 medium-range multirole aircraft remains unfulfilled, with the NDA government opting to deliver only 36 Rafales to the IAF. A decade has elapsed since that decision, and the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) has yet to join the fleet, primarily due to delays in the timely supply of US-made F-404 engines. This situation underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive reassessment of India’s air power strategy to ensure readiness in an increasingly volatile security environment.
Challenges For India
India faces significant challenges in acquiring the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), with limited options available. The country can either wait for the Indian Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) project to develop over the next decade or consider the US offer for direct sales of the F-35 or the Russian proposal for technology transfer of the Su-57. However, each option comes with substantial constraints.
The F-35, while technologically superior, is prohibitively expensive at approximately $110 million per unit and raises concerns regarding maintenance costs and operational sovereignty, especially given the unpredictable nature of US foreign policy. On the other hand, the Su-57, priced between $40 and $50 million, relies heavily on components sourced from China, necessitating a complete severance of ties with Chinese suppliers if India opts for this aircraft. India will need to ensure that all spare parts and components are sourced from Indian vendors.
The AMCA, although marketed as an indigenous solution, would still depend on US-made F-414 engines, with only 80 per cent of the technology being transferred under current discussions. This reliance highlights the broader dilemma facing India: none of the available FGFAs are free from significant limitations. Even if India chooses to proceed with either the US or Russian options, the timeline for operational deployment would extend by at least three to four years, further complicating the strategic landscape for India’s defence capabilities.
Considering the scenario that future wars would be dominated by aerial assets, India needs to be ready for a huge investment to not only match rival forces but also overpower them.
India Still Lacks A Clear Air Combat Strategy
The military leadership has conveyed a pressing need to the civilian administration and political leaders for enhanced preparedness, particularly in light of potential future operations similar to Operation Sindoor, especially following provocative terrorist incidents akin to the Pahalgam attack. In anticipation, Pakistan is already mobilising its resources to counter any forthcoming actions by India.
The next iteration of Operation Sindoor will undoubtedly necessitate more advanced air combat capabilities. However, Indian defence officials have yet to present a definitive strategy to assure the public that future anti-terror operations will be supported by the latest aerial technology. The Indian Air Force cannot afford to wait a decade for the indigenous AMCA fifth-generation fighter, as the urgency for improved firepower became evident after the lessons learned from Operation Sindoor.
The Indian security establishment’s complacency prior to Operation Sindoor — characterised by an overreliance on domestic capabilities for developing a fifth-generation fighter—has proven to be misguided. Despite the ongoing military standoff with China, which highlighted the necessity for a more robust Air Force, there was a prevailing attitude of underestimation regarding the urgency of modernisation.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to launch a limited offensive against Pakistani terrorists was a direct response to the heinous attacks, underscoring the reality that such provocations could recur. Failure to respond effectively could lead to perceptions of diminished military confidence, compelling India to act decisively to maintain its strategic standing.
Lessons from Sindoor: IAF Faces Two-Front Threat, Shrinking Fleet
The current state of readiness to effectively counter rival forces in air combat raises significant concerns. During Operation Sindoor, Pakistan was clearly supported by Chinese fighters equipped with advanced air-to-air missiles and real-time satellite intelligence. Additionally, Turkish drones operated by Turkish personnel played a crucial role in the operation.
It is commendable that Indian defence authorities have acknowledged their concerns regarding the likelihood of future conflicts with Pakistan being bolstered by active support from China and Turkey. It is surprising that they did not anticipate China’s involvement in aiding Pakistan during potential military actions.
The longstanding Sino-Pak alliance, which became evident during Operation Sindoor, should not have been underestimated, although Turkey’s participation was an unexpected development. Despite its limitations, Operation Sindoor has provided a clear framework for future strategies.
To enhance its air combat capabilities, India must take significant measures to increase its fighter squadron strength, which has dwindled to a concerning 31 squadrons, well below the recommended 42. This situation necessitates a thorough reassessment, especially in light of the growing collaboration among its adversaries.
The Indian Air Force (IAF) faces a substantial backlog in modernising its fleet, having last inducted the Sukhoi-30 fighters over two decades ago and only a limited number of 36 Rafales in the past decade. Therefore, the IAF urgently requires upgrades to fifth-generation capabilities and substantial investment to ensure it can effectively engage in a two-front air conflict against the combined forces of Pakistan, China, and Turkey.