Tesla plans to debut Optimus 3 in the coming months, with Musk claiming it could eventually move U.S. GDP.
- Burry tempered expectations that general intelligence and human-like robots are still some time away.
- Musk has been touting progress with Tesla AI and Optimus robots, recently claiming that Tesla’s newest robot could have a material impact on U.S. GDP.
- Tesla is vacating the space at its Fremont factory where the now-discontinued Model S and X were built for Optimus production.
Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk has repeatedly made bold claims about Tesla’s Optimus robot and AI reaching general intelligence — with the latest on the electric carmaker’s earnings call on Wednesday — but a well-known investor is now urging the market to temper its expectations.
On Wednesday, Musk reshared a seemingly satirical chart about AI progress, showing how it improves slowly at first, then accelerates rapidly, eventually surpassing human intelligence levels faster than people expect. In a response Micheal Burry, the famed “Big Short” investor, wrote, “cart before monkey robot people. No one has invented AI yet.”
What Burry – known for predicting the 2008 financial crash and making money off it – means is that the current AI is nowhere near general intelligence, and Musk’s claims are premature (“cart before monkey” is likely a reference to the well-known proverb, “putting the cart before the horse” as well as the chart showing the stage when an AI robot can do monkey-like tricks.)
General Intelligence is the stage at which an AI system achieves human-like cognitive abilities and is autonomously able to learn, understand, and apply knowledge across a range of tasks.
Nevertheless, Musk remains optimistic. On Tesla’s earnings call, Musk said Tesla will launch its “incredibly capable” Optimus 3 robot in the coming months, which, long term, could “actually move [the] needle on U.S. GDP significantly.”
“Optimus 3 really will be a general-purpose robot that can learn by observing human behavior, so you can, like, demonstrate a task or literally verbally describe a task or show it a task, even show it a video, and it will be able to do that task,” Musk said
Over the years, Musk has repeatedly touted Optimus as a major innovation and a core part of Tesla and AI robotics. However, production and technical delays have derailed its development, with a public release now expected sometime next year.
When asked how many Optimus robots are deployed in Tesla factories, Musk said, “It’s still in the R&D phase, so we have had Optimus do some basic tasks in the factory,” without giving a figure.
Tesla has stopped Model S and X production and would use the space at its Fremont factory meant for those vehicles for Optimus robots, Musk said, adding that he forecasts 1 million unit product capacity.
China is strong in AI and manufacturing, posing the toughest competition, Musk said, adding that Tesla leads in real-world intelligence, electromechanical dexterity, and scaling production – three hardest challenges in humanoid robotics.
“We think Optimus will be much more capable than any robot that we are aware of under development in China.”
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