New Delhi: “Modi’s war” — that’s how US President Donald Trump’s senior counsellor on trade, Peter Navarro, described the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Navarro is not the first Trump aide to link India with Russia’s aggression, but this is the first time someone from the US President’s inner circle has directly blamed New Delhi for what many in the Global South view as a conflict manufactured by the West, including Washington itself.
Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Navarro said: “Everybody in America loses because of what India is doing. Consumers, businesses, workers lose because India’s high tariffs cost us jobs, factories and higher wages. And then taxpayers lose because we got to fund Modi’s war.”
Trump has already imposed 25 per cent tariffs, plus an additional 25 per cent penalty for India’s purchase of “discounted” Russian crude, which the US claims funds Putin’s war. Indian exports to the US now face combined tariffs of 50 per cent.
Hypocrisy in Washington
It is another matter that China is the largest buyer of Russian crude, Europe remains the biggest buyer of Russian energy, and even the US continues to import nuclear fuel from Moscow. Despite sanctions and export bans, Washington still imports low-enriched uranium (LEU) from Russia. If anything, India — buying oil under a Western price-cap mechanism and reselling refined fuel to Europe — has been singled out for special punishment.
Unlike India, Washington cannot afford to escalate tariffs with Beijing. China extracts 90 per cent of the world’s rare earths — vital for EVs and tech products — and holds one of the largest shares of US treasury bonds. When Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs in April, Beijing began offloading bonds, sending ripples through US stock markets. Trump has since extended China a second 90-day reprieve to negotiate, after the first window expired, while Beijing has threatened to choke rare earth supplies.
Trade deal red lines
Navarro also forgets America’s own history of fuelling wars — including arming Pakistan in 1971. His latest claims reflect frustration more than facts. Trump’s team appears rattled by India’s refusal to cross red lines in trade negotiations. The Indian government has made it clear that it is unwilling to open its agriculture sector to US products — particularly genetically modified crops and duty-free farm and dairy imports.
Trump’s fragile ego has been bruised elsewhere. Despite his repeated claim of preventing a “nuclear war” between India and Pakistan, New Delhi has offered no validation. On social media, his claim has become meme material, repeated more than 40 times.
Trust deficit returns
The irony is that Trump’s moves risk undoing decades of hard-earned trust. After India’s 1998 nuclear tests and subsequent US sanctions, relations only thawed in 2001. Successive presidents — Bush, Obama, Biden — invested in the partnership, calling it “the most important of the 21st century”. In 2016, Washington even designated India a “major defence partner”, granting access to advanced technologies without requiring a formal alliance.
Trump’s tariff offensive, however, threatens to roll back 25 years of progress.
India hedges with Russia and China
India has responded with hedging. Prime Minister Modi is set to visit China after more than seven years for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, signalling a thaw following the 2020 Doklam standoff. President Vladimir Putin is also expected in India later this year, with a possible bilateral at the SCO.
Russia was India’s primary defence supplier for decades, until New Delhi began diversifying after Doklam — buying from Israel, France and the US to guard against Moscow tilting towards Beijing. While diversification continues, so too does the push for new trade deals, particularly with the EU. India cannot rely on China — its enduring rival — but nor can it abandon the lucrative US market.
Tariffs bite, economy resilient
India’s textile hubs in Surat and Tiruppur, and jewellery exporters in Gujarat and Rajasthan, are bracing for major losses under 50 per cent tariffs. Pharma exports have been spared for now, but there is no guarantee they will remain exempt. Still, India’s economy has surprised: GDP grew 7.8 per cent in the first quarter, above the 6.5 per cent projection, driven by services.
Some experts argue India’s non-alignment hampers deeper trade ties with the US. Yet America’s closest allies — Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea — also face punitive trade policies, showing Washington itself cannot always be trusted. Currently, US tariffs affect only 22 per cent of Indian exports. The short-term pain may cost up to 1 per cent of GDP, but in the long run India can diversify with Africa and South America.
Reform or miss the moment
As The Economist noted, the tariff crisis offers India an opportunity: a defining test of its claim to be a superpower-in-waiting. But it requires urgent reforms — deregulating business, modernising agriculture, reforming land and power distribution. PM Modi has also pledged to simplify GST and ease regulations, but delivery is critical.
India’s ambition to become a global manufacturing hub also hinges on this. Its pitch to attract companies moving from China could falter if US tariffs remain harsher on India than on China or other Asian rivals. Even with “China+1” strategies, India risks losing its edge.
India’s stand
So far, New Delhi has handled the tariff crisis with maturity. Prime Minister Modi has said he is ready to “pay a very heavy price” to resist US pressure. The External Affairs Ministry called the additional tariffs “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”, pointing out that other buyers of Russian oil face no such punishment. India has avoided retaliation, signalling openness to a fair trade deal.
Trump’s grievances also stem from unmet personal goals. He wanted credit for “mediating” between India and Pakistan, even seeking to leverage it into a Nobel Peace Prize. Pakistan has already nominated him, but India refused to play along.
Wider global picture
India now finds itself, alongside Brazil, hit with the highest 50 per cent tariff rate. Textiles, gems and jewellery are the worst affected, while pharma remains exempt for now. By contrast, South Korea and Japan face only 15 per cent tariffs, though their deals also carry politically sensitive strings — from opening farm markets to skewed profit-sharing. Japan’s chief negotiator even cancelled a US trip after Trump demanded Washington keep 90 per cent of profits from a proposed $550 billion investment package.
Ultimately, the world is watching how India responds. If it withstands this assault while keeping sovereignty intact, it may set a precedent for others on how to deal with Washington’s coercion.
This is no longer about trade imbalances but about sovereignty. India may be paying a price now, but by holding its ground it could set an example for emerging powers facing America’s pressure.