T20 World Cup 2026: India’s semifinal path a tightrope walk after South Africa drubbing

New Delhi: While India qualified for the T20 World Cup 2026 unscathed and undefeated, none of the four performances could be termed as complete. The win against Pakistan was as close as they came to a perfect performance. All three of their other wins came against associate nations, and all were unconvincing, showing signs of shaky scrambles rather than dominance, which is often associated with Team India.

The unblemished record in the group stage papered over the cracks. But once India faced off a quality side like South Africa, all the cracks were exposed. The 76-run loss in Ahmedabad on Sunday served as a wake-up call for the T20 powerhouses, who suffered their first defeat in a T20 World Cup match since the 2022 semifinal against England. India’s heaviest loss in the T20 World Cup has jeopardised their semifinal chances, leaving them with no room for error in the remaining two Super 8 fixtures.

India let the game slip after a superb start with the ball

Despite making a superb start with the ball, India were pegged back by a sensational 97-run stand between Dewald Brevis (45 off 29 balls) and David Miller (63 off 35 balls) and a late cameo by Tristan Stubbs (44 off 24 balls). While Indian bowlers pulled things back to restrict the Proteas to 187/7, the batters let the team down with one of the worst performances in recent times.

India’s bad habit of losing a wicket in the first over of the innings continued on Sunday, and unlike previous matches, neither a partnership nor a brilliant individual performance was on display to bail them out.

There was no phase in the innings that India looked in control of the run chase and were bundled out for just 111 with Marco Jansen scalping 4 wickets.

The massive loss not only dented India’s confidence but also their Net Run Rate, which in the group stages was the best across all four groups.

No room for a slip-up

After being brought down to their knees, India can’t afford slip-ups in the remaining Super 8 matches against West Indies and Zimbabwe to qualify for the semifinal.

The scenario is straightforward. Win both matches and qualify for the semifinal, lose one and pray to the gods for a favour in other matches.

Victories in the remaining two fixtures will give India 4 points from 2 matches, which should be enough to reach the semifinal unless two other teams also have four points. That can only happen if the Proteas win just one of their remaining matches and the winner of the match between West Indies and Zimbabwe also beats them. If that happens, India’s qualification will come down to NRR (-3.800), which has taken a beating after the damaging loss in the Super 8s opener.

If India lose another Super 8s fixture, they would hope South Africa win all of their matches. Along with that, India’s win must be against the winner of the West Indies-Zimbabwe match, which will place all three teams at two points apiece, and the qualification will depend on NRR.

Remaining Group 1 Super 8 fixtures:

February 23: West Indies vs Zimbabwe (Mumbai)

February 26: South Africa vs West Indies (Ahmedabad)

February 26: India vs Zimbabwe (Chennai)

March 1: South Africa vs Zimbabwe (Delhi)

March 1: India vs West Indies (Kolkata)