Strait of Hormuz: Will America be able to capture the Strait of Hormuz? Trump threatened

The war between Iran and Israel-America seems to be dragging on for a long time. The effect of this war is being seen all over the world. There are many reasons for this but one of the most important reasons remains the Strait of Hormuz. A large part of the world’s oil and gas supply passes through this route. This is like a life-line for many Asian countries including India and China. It is in the maritime border of Iran. Due to the war, Iran has taken strict action here. Many types of restrictions have been imposed. The result is that now a negative impact is being seen on the supply of oil and gas.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s statement has come out, in which he is expressing his intention to capture the Strait of Hormuz. His intention is that many countries of the world will feel relieved by the opening of this route. After this statement of Trump, questions are being raised whether this is possible? Can America really do this? What will be the consequences if he tries? Come, let us understand this issue.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?

It is a narrow sea route that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and further to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The big oil producing countries of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and other countries mostly send their crude oil and gas through this route. It is estimated that about 25 percent of the world’s oil and gas supply passes through this route. This means that if this route is closed, the entire world economy can be shaken. Oil prices can skyrocket. Inflation can increase in every country. These days, such signs have started coming even though this path has not been completely blocked.

Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz.

War, threats and expensive oil

The ongoing war with Iran has made this route unstable. Ibrahim Jabbari, a senior officer of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, told Al Jazeera that the strait is closed, if any ship tries to go, we will set it on fire. They threatened that they would also attack pipelines and would not allow even a single drop of oil to go out. In such a situation, the price of oil may increase significantly.

Due to such statements and actual attacks, oil prices have already increased by about 25 to 30 percent in the international market. Qatar’s big gas company Qatar Energy has stopped LNG production after the attacks. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura Refinery is closed after drone attack.

US President Donald Trump (2)

US President Donald Trump.

What is Trump saying?

Donald Trump has said in an interview that he is thinking of taking over Hormuz, so that this route remains open and the oil supply does not stop. He said that if Iran obstructs the flow of oil, America will hit them with twenty times more force.

He says that he will not allow any terrorist regime to cut off the world’s oil supply. Trump says that this war will not last long. However, he has also given statements in the past that the war may drag on for a long time. Trump’s statements are also strict, and to some extent seem to have been made keeping domestic politics in mind.

Can America legally occupy?

This is the real question, the correct answer to which is no. He cannot do this legally. According to international maritime law, the maritime boundary of the Strait of Hormuz mostly falls under the jurisdiction of Iran and Oman. This means that this entire area is not international water, where any country can occupy it as per its wish. International media has quoted shipping expert Alexander Freeman as saying – America has no right on the strait.

If it tries to take over here without the consent of Iran and Oman, it will be considered interference in their jurisdiction. Therefore, America cannot legitimately occupy the Strait of Hormuz. If it tries to take control of the area with additional troops, ships and weapons, it may further instigate international conflict and war.

Then what can America do?

Although not in legal possession, America and its allies have some tools. America can say that it will only run escort missions, that is, it will help in the safe evacuation of oil and gas ships with its navy. Trump has already said that if necessary, he will send the US Navy with ships through Hormuz. French President Emmanuel Macron has also said that France and its partner countries are ready for defensive missions, in which ships can be escorted.

America can help Gulf countries protect themselves from Iranian attacks by providing stronger missile defense, radar, drone surveillance, etc. More stringent economic sanctions may be imposed on Iran. Together with the Gulf countries and the European Union, such pressure can be created that Iran will be forced to abandon the policy of keeping the strait closed.

What is Iran’s strategy?

Iran’s stance is very strict. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has clearly said that Iran will keep fighting as long as necessary. Kamal Kharazi, an advisor to the Supreme Leader’s office, has told CNN that now he does not see any scope for diplomacy, because Trump has carried out attacks twice even during talks. In such a situation, Iran is alert. He wants to create as much chaos and instability as possible, so that the economic burden on the Gulf countries increases. Oil and gas prices increase in the global market. The countries of the world should put pressure on America to stop the war. That is why now Iran’s target is not only military bases, but also large economic and civil structures. Like power plant, refinery, port etc.

What could happen next?

Analysts believe that if the domestic situation in America worsens, prices of petrol and diesel increase, inflation increases, mid-term elections are near, then the pressure on the Trump administration to stop the war and reduce tension will increase. International media quoted Professor Scott Lucas of University College Dublin as saying that if domestic pressure intensifies, the Gulf countries may also ask America to step back and cool down the war. If oil prices take another big jump, this pressure will intensify.

message to the whole world

As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, the pockets of every country in the world will be affected. Be it America, India, Europe or Africa. This is the reason why this small route has become a big headache for the whole world today. The actual capture of the Strait of Hormuz is not within anyone’s control, because it is not just a game of military power, but a combined game of international law, regional politics, energy markets and domestic pressure. This is why the world is worried about its future and wants to somehow find a way to stability as soon as possible.

Also read: If Strait of Hormuz is closed then there is oil crisis in the world, what is the alternative?

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