Indian benchmark indices are likely to open on a positive note tracking the optimism in the global markets ahead of the key economic data from the US later today.
The bottomline of GST cut is likely to continue to guide the direction at Dalal Street amid tariff concerns and FII outflows.
Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 60.50 points, or 0.24 per cent, up at 24,888, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian stocks were trading higher on Friday. Nikkei gained nearly a per cent, while Hang Seng was up nearly half a per cent. KOSPI was trading flat, marginally up.
While headwinds persist from continued FII outflows and uncertainty around the US trade deal, the recent GST reforms are expected to boost consumer demand, support corporate earnings, and lift sentiment, providing a strong tailwind ahead of the festive season, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “We expect the market to gradually move higher.”
US stocks ended higher on Thursday with the S&P 500 posted a closing record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 350.06 points, or 0.77 per cent, to 45,621.29, the S&P 500 gained 53.82 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 6,502.08 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 209.97 points, or 0.98 per cent, to 21,707.69.
The dollar mostly held its ground on Friday as bond markets stabilised and traders awaited key US jobs data. The dollar index was little changed at 98.207, set for a 0.4 per cent gain this week. Gold prices eased nearly a per cent to fetch $3,547.97 an ounce.
Oil prices drifted down in early trading on Friday for the third straight day as investors awaited an OPEC+ meeting this weekend that will consider further output hikes. Brent crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $66.77 a barrel at 0012 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 19 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $63.29.
The broader outlook stays vulnerable to global macro uncertainties, continued FII outflows, and persistent US tariff headwinds, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “In the near term, consolidation in the benchmark index cannot be ruled out. Hence, we recommend maintaining selective exposure to structurally strong themes while keeping a close eye on the risk-reward equation,” he said.
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 106.34 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,233.09 crore on a net-net basis.
Nifty & Sensex Outlook
The short-term market outlook remains positive; however, a fresh uptrend rally is possible only after crossing the 24,850/81000 level. Above this, the market could move up to 25,000/81500, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.
“Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting the index up to 25,100/81800. On the downside, 24,650/80500 and 24,600/80300 are key support zones for day traders. If the index falls below 24,600/80300, the uptrend could become vulnerable,” he said.
Going ahead, the zone of 24710-24740 will act as an important hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move above the level of 24740 will lead to extension of the pullback rally upto the 24900 level, said By Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities. “While on the downside, the zone of 24500-24470 will act as immediate support for it,” he said.
Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed a red candle on the daily chart, but it continues to hold above its 200-DEMA as well as the low of the bullish engulfing candle placed near 53,560, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP of Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates. “As long as the Bank Nifty sustains above this level, a buy-on-dips strategy is recommended,” he said.
We expect the index to extend consolidation in the range 53,300-55,000 in the coming sessions. Bank Nifty has immediate support at 53,500-53,300 levels being the confluence of the 200 days EMA and the low of May 2025, said Bajaj Broking. “A breach below the same will signal acceleration of decline towards the key support area of 52,500-52,000 levels in the coming week.”