SpaceX Stock Carries Up To 25% ‘Political Discount,’ Dan Ives Says — Sees Elon Musk’s Tesla Merger Still In Play

• Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa wants stronger data-center protections. Abbott had already paused permits pending power and water audits.
• Ives sees robotics and Cybercabs as Tesla’s future, while orbital data centers remain years away.
• SpaceX is seeking tax incentives for a $24 billion Starbase power and computing project, with a hearing scheduled for Dec. 9.

Yorkville Ives strategist Dan Ives sees a 20%-25% political discount in SpaceX (SPCX) shares as CEO Elon Musk faces a tougher climate for his Texas AI plans. He still expects SpaceX to buy Tesla (TSLA), but he now thinks a deal faces more hurdles.

SPCX stock rose 1% on Tuesday to $143.09, logging its third session of gains. 

Ives Sees Room For A Texas Compromise

“I still believe SpaceX acquires Tesla,” Ives told Anthony Pompliano on The Pomp Podcast. But the midterm results have made SpaceX’s expansion harder, he said, particularly in Texas, where much of its data-center buildout is planned.

“Because you could argue, I think there’s like a 20%-25% discount right now in SpaceX, almost because like the political discount to some extent that’s playing out,” he said.

Musk cannot simply move those plans to Florida, Ives said. He expects the billionaire to negotiate with Texas officials. “He will come to the table. I do think the negotiation will happen,” Ives said.

Meanwhile, Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has called for a pause in data-center development until stronger protections for residents are in place. The Democrat, who defeated Greg Abbott, said she is willing to work with Musk’s companies on her administration’s terms.

Restrictions were already tightening before the election. In September, Abbott ordered a pause in data-center permits pending audits of power and water needs. Meanwhile, SpaceX is seeking tax incentives for a $24 billion power plant and supercomputing facility in Starbase, with a hearing scheduled for Dec. 9.

Both companies have formed special committees to explore a possible merger, but  SpaceX has cautioned that a deal may never happen. A deal would require the necessary committee, board, and shareholder approvals.

Musk has publicly supported the idea but is staying out of the committees’ discussions because of his conflicts of interest.

AI Brings SpaceX And Tesla Closer

SpaceX and Tesla already share AI ambitions through the Terafab chipmaking project in Texas. The state is also home to SpaceX’s headquarters, Starbase launch operations, and Starlink factory.

Computing now accounts for a large share of SpaceX’s business. Its SI division, which includes AI infrastructure and services, generated $7.56 billion in third-quarter revenue, more than half the company’s $14.58 billion total.

At Tesla, Ives backed the move toward Cybercab production, calling Cybertruck a niche product. He sees autonomous driving and robotics as the company’s future, though he expects a bumpy transition. “The future for Tesla is around robotics, autonomous, cyber cabs,” he said.

When asked whether data centers in orbit could help SpaceX overcome constraints on Earth, Ives said the idea was still years away. For now, the company needs to build in Texas. “So many years. I mean, I agree longer term, no doubt. But in the near term, it’s about building out in Texas,” he said.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX And TSLA?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was “bullish” for SPCX and “bearish” for TSLA, with “normal” message volume for both. 

One user said, “$TSLA there is a merger being worked on here with this company. Long awaited”

Another user said TSLA is “looking good again building a nice base above 370 all it needs is some merger pump news to start those 3-4% random days again to push this to all time highs imo”

While SPCX stock has declined 11% year-to-date, TSLA fell 16% over the same period. 

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