RKLB Vs. SPCX: Which Space Stock Has More Upside As Rocket Lab’s Iridium Deal Deepens Spectrum Feud?

• Analyst targets imply about 78% upside for SPCX versus 59% for RKLB. Both carry an overall ‘Strong Buy’ rating.
• SpaceX is separately seeking control of Grain Management’s 546 paired 800 MHz licenses.
• Both companies already qualify for NASA’s VADR launch program.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) says buying Iridium would boost competition. But SpaceX (SPCX) says that the $8 billion deal could give a longtime spectrum rival more power to hold up competitors.

The disagreement has brought a running dispute over shared airwaves into the FCC’s merger review. On Wall Street, analysts see gains ahead for both launch companies, with SpaceX leading on implied upside.

SpaceX Warns Of Stronger Spectrum Rival

In a fresh regulatory filing on Monday, SpaceX accused Iridium of using procedural objections, exclusivity claims and coordination demands to restrict competing deployments.

“While Iridium and Rocket Lab claim that their applications would promote competition, they ignore Iridium’s own long-standing efforts to stymie competitors seeking to provide service to millions of Americans,” SpaceX said. Its argument is that the resources Rocket Lab and Iridium present as a benefit could make those alleged practices more damaging.

“The Commission must consider the real public harms from Iridium’s years-long anticompetitive campaign when considering the transaction applications,” SpaceX satellite policy associate Matthew Turk said.

Why Rocket Lab Wants Iridium

Rocket Lab and Iridium said late last month that the spectrum disputes belong in separate proceedings. Neither SpaceX nor Ligado Networks had shown how the takeover would worsen them, they said.

Rocket Lab has no mobile-satellite-service spectrum and no near-term independent route into Iridium’s market, the companies said. On that basis, “the transaction will not increase concentration or reduce competition in any market.” 

Iridium would bring more than 2.55 million subscribers and 66 operational satellites to Rocket Lab’s launch and manufacturing businesses. The companies say the deal would lower costs and speed up upgrades, including a constellation with 20 times as many beams per satellite, broader direct-to-device services and improved positioning, navigation and timing capabilities.

Shareholders approved the deal in September. Closing is expected in 2027, subject to FCC consent and other conditions. The offer was announced at $54 per Iridium share, comprising $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock. 

SPCX Vs. RKLB: Which Stock Has More Upside?

SpaceX’s average 12-month target of $255.06 implies 78% upside from current levels. Meanwhile, Rocket Lab’s $99.40 target implies 59% upside, according to Koyfin. Both have an overall ‘Strong Buy’ rating.

Rocket Lab’s 22 analysts include five at ‘Strong Buy’, 13 at ‘Buy’ and four at ‘Hold’, with no sell ratings. Targets range from $58 to $150, while shares have gained about 21% over the past year.

On the other hand, SpaceX has eight ‘Strong Buy’, 24 ‘Buy’, six ‘Hold’ and two ‘Sell’ ratings from 40 analysts, with none at ‘Strong Sell’. Its targets range from $70 to $800, revealing a much wider spread of views on valuation.

Inside The Starlink-Iridium Spectrum Dispute

The underlying fight concerns Starlink gateways, the ground stations connecting its satellites to terrestrial networks. Iridium says some proposed operations could interfere with its own links in the shared Ka-band spectrum.

After the FCC authorized additional operations with interference safeguards in January, Iridium challenged a Bastrop, Texas, gateway application in May. SpaceX countered in June and July, claiming the FCC had already rejected Iridium’s petitions 18 times.

“Iridium has no interest in impeding SpaceX’s business plans,” regulatory executive Kara Azocar said in August, citing progress in talks. Five days later, Iridium said simulations still showed excessive interference.

SpaceX brought the issue into the merger review on August 27, alleging more than 50 Iridium petitions over eight months. It also stated: “SpaceX does not oppose the transaction.”

Globalstar Flags A Separate Conflict-Of-Interest Concern

Ligado raised similar competition concerns in October, accusing Iridium of delaying rival services, including its planned SkyTerra Next offering with AST SpaceMobile.

Globalstar focused on Rocket Lab’s role as its supplier. Rocket Lab provides satellite buses through MDA Space, along with software and operational capabilities. Globalstar warned that access to its designs and schedules could create conflicts after Rocket Lab buys Iridium. It does not oppose the acquisition.

“The Commission should require the applicants to address these specific risks rather than relying on Iridium’s general claims that integration is beneficial,” Globalstar said. 

SpaceX Is Expanding Its Spectrum Footprint

On Tuesday, the FCC accepted applications for Starlink Spectrum Holdings to acquire control of Grain Management’s 546 paired 800 MHz licenses. The licenses cover up to 14 MHz across 3,224 counties, with a footprint reaching nearly the entire U.S. population. The applicants put SpaceX’s total spectrum holdings after the purchase at up to 89 MHz in each relevant area.

The transfer still needs approval. Comments and petitions are due Dec.1, with oppositions due Dec.8. Deployment conditions from Grain’s earlier T-Mobile purchase would carry over to SpaceX.

These frequencies are separate from the Ka-band dispute. SpaceX plans to use them in a network combining satellites and ground infrastructure, including better indoor coverage.

Rivals Compete For NASA Launch Work 

Both companies are among 13 eligible providers under NASA’s VADR program for smaller science and technology launches. NASA opened a round on Tuesday to add providers and capabilities, with proposals due Dec.10. 

Rocket Lab is also challenging NASA’s September selection of Blue Origin for the Mars Telecommunications Network, worth up to about $700 million. The communications orbiter is due for delivery by the end of 2028, with operations expected by 2030.

“NASA’s award decision appears to be inconsistent with the eligibility criteria mandated by Congress,” Rocket Lab said, questioning eligibility and NASA’s technical evaluation. Blue Origin defended the selection and warned that delays could threaten the launch schedule. A Government Accountability Office decision is due Dec.21.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About RKLB And SPCX?

On Stocktwits, RKLB sentiment swung to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bearish’ a week ago amid ‘high’ message volume, while SPCX climbed to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ amid ‘normal’ volume. 

One user said, “$RKLB This. Is. Primed. A close above 62.50 shoots this to high 70’s”

Another user liked the prospects but questioned the price. “I like the potential of this company being #2 to SpaceX, but I think it’s a little pricey right now,” they said.

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