RIL Q2 results: Net profit may rise 9-11%; Jio subscribers, Retail store additions & more

Reliance Industries Ltd, India’s most-valued firm, is expected to report 9-11 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit for the September quarter on a 7-11 per cent rise in sales.

Ebitda is seen expanding, with Retail and Telecom segments likely to post 17-18 per cent growth. Upstream segment may stay soft, analysts said as they believe further clarity on Rs 75,000 crore announcements in the new energy business, growth in Retail store additions, and any pricing action in Telecom are key monitorables going ahead.

Emkay Global sees Reliance Industries’ consolidated Q2 profit at Rs 18,112 crore, up 9.4 per cent YoY. Revenue is seen rising 7.6 per cent YoY to Rs 2,49,179 crore. Ebitda margin are seen expanding 80 basis points to 17.7 per cent from 16.9 per cent YoY. “O2C Ebitda may rise 3 per cent QoQ to Rs 15,000 crore; upstream Ebitda may remain steady QoQ at Rs 4,970 crore; Retail Ebitda is seen up 2 per cent QoQ at Rs 6,480 crore; Jio’s ARPU may rise 1 per cent QoQ. Subscribers are expected to grow 50 lakh in Q2FY26,” the brokerage said.

JM Financial said RIL has industry-leading capabilities across businesses to drive robust 15-20 per cent EPS CAGR over the next 3-5 years, particularly driven by both consumer businesses with Jio’s ARPU expected to rise at 13 percent CAGR over FY25-28 with ARPU being on a structural uptrend given the industry structure, future investment needs, and the need to avoid a duopoly mark. For the September quarter, it sees RIL Q2 profit at Rs 18,384 crore, up 11 per cent. For Jio, JM sees 70 lakh subscriber gains and 1.1 per cent QoQ rise in ARPU to Rs 211 driven by upgrades and one more day QoQ in Q2.

Kotak sees RIL Q2 reported profit after tax at Rs 18,261 crore, up 10.3 per cent. Revenue is seen rising 11.3 per cent at Rs 2,57,588 crore.

ICICI Securities expects Reliance Industries (RIL) to report an 18 per cent YoY rise in earnings from its retail segment. Reliance Jio is projected to deliver 17 per cent YoY growth in Ebitda. The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment is likely to see a sequential increase of around $0.4 per barrel in gross refining margins (GRMs), with the petrochemicals business showing some improvement, partly offset by lower throughput due to refinery shutdowns. The upstream segment, however, may experience YoY softness as slightly lower production and a higher government share of profit petroleum weigh on margins.

On a sequential basis, “RIL’s Ebitda is expected to be up 4.3 per cent QoQ, supported by steady growth across all major segments, except upstream. The O2C segment should post 3.8 per cent QoQ growth in Ebitda, driven by higher refining throughput, partly offset by weaker petchem spread. Jio is likely to report a 2.7 per cent QoQ Ebitda increase, aided by a 1.1 per cent ARPU rise (Rs 211 vs Rs 208.8) and 40 lakh net subscriber additions taking the base to 50.21 crore. Retail Ebitda is expected to grow 4.1 per cent QoQ, reflecting continued store expansion and growth in footfalls. The upstream segment may see a mild decline in Ebitda due to lower KGD6 gas volumes.

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