Research reveals how Londoners used death data to survive plague

New Delhi: In the mid-1660s, the city of London faced a catastrophic outbreak, known as the Great Plague that claimed about 100,000 lives, or nearly one-fifth of the population of the city. The public health oversight moved from the church to the state. To manage the epidemic, authorities implemented strict ‘Plague Orders’ that included mandatory home quarantine, the closure of public spaces such as theatres, and the use of watchmen to enforce travel restrictions and surveillance. These early public health systems established a precedent for state-led crisis management, and the limitation of individual liberties in the interest of collective safety.

Scientists have examined the famous diary of Samuel Pepys, an English naval administrator, writer and politician, to better understand how the Bills of Mortality, or death reports published weekly served as a survival tool. These bills were sold or streets or posted in public, and were the primary data source to track the spread of the epidemic. Pepys used it for route planning, to avoid specific neighbourhoods and tracking the spread of the plague, evacuating from the city when the death toll passed 700, using the data to justify moving his family to Woolwich for safety, and monitoring the numbers to determine when to close businesses or move naval operations to Deptford.

Data and social inequality

Wealthy citizens such as Pepys could maintain their freedom of movement, while the poor were disproportionately affected by lockdowns and unable to flee the city. The research revealed a stark social divide in the ability to act on public health data. Impoverished residents were often forcibly confined to their homes, faced starvation and cross-infection. Those lacking the financial resource to relocate or bypass travel restrictions remained trapped in densely populated parishes where the mortality rates were the highest. A paper describing the research has been published in Accounting History.