Reliance Industries Stock Crashes: Why Mega Bluechip Lost Rs 53,961 Cr, Nearly Double Its Best Ever Q1 Profit?

Reliance Industries, the mega blue-chip stock, lost nearly Rs 53,961 crore of market value and crashed by nearly 3% on July 21. The loss was nearly double the amount of the best-ever consolidated net profit of Rs 26,994 crore registered in Q1FY26 by the Mukesh Ambani-backed company.

The reason for the bearish trend in Reliance was due to its EBITDA which was below estimates, and disappointing standalone earnings. Also, little weakness was seen in O2C and retail business, while digital business performed upbeat.

Reliance Industries Share Price:

At the time of writing, Reliance shares traded at Rs 1445.75 apiece on BSE, down by 2.11% with market cap of Rs 19,56,457.23 crore.

Reliance stock was near its intraday low of Rs 1436.85 apiece that was recorded in the early trade. Overall, the stock crashed by 2.7% on BSE. That being said, at 2.7% decline, Reliance’s market value has corrected by Rs 53,960.66 crore to Rs 19,44,582.55 crorecompared to an m-cap of Rs 19,98,543.22 crore.

Reliance is the largest company in India in terms of market share. Following the latest sharp selloff in Reliance, Mukesh Ambani’s net worth is down by $170 million in a single day to $107 billion. He is currently at 16th rank in the world’s rich list, as per the Bloomberg Billionaire Index.

“RIL’s consolidated 1QFY26 EBITDA was 3-4% below JMFe/consensus at INR 429bn (down 2.1% QoQ but up 10.7% YoY) primarily due to a) O2C EBITDA being 4% below JMFe due to impact of shutdown and high fuel oil crack (while E&P EBITDA was in line); and b) Retail EBITDA being 2% below JMFe as consumer electronic sales was impacted due to the early onset of the monsoon,” said JM Financial’s analysts in the note.

Also, Prabhudas Lilladher analysts in their note said, “Standalone EBITDA at Rs131.7bn was 8% down QoQ despite improvement in benchmark GRM and petrochem spreads, primarily due to partial shutdown and possible inventory losses.”

Reliance Stock Is Down Since The Past 5 Trading Sessions: 

Reliance Industries Q1 Results:

During the April-June 2025 quarter for FY26, Reliance registered its highest ever consolidated net profit of Rs 26,994 crore, owing to its one-time gains of Rs 8,924 crore due to stake sale in Asian Paints and other investment proceeds.

Reliance’s PAT stood at Rs 19,407 crore in Q4FY25 and at Rs 15,138 crore in Q1FY25. Meanwhile, EBITDA jumped by nearly 36% YoY to Rs 58,024 crore.

Also, gross revenue surged by 6% YoY to Rs 273,252 crore ($ 31.9 billion). According to Mukesh Ambani, despite significant volatility in global macro conditions, Reliance begins FY26 with a robust, all-around operation and financial performance.

What Should Investors Do With Reliance Industries Share Price?

“The stock is trading at 12.0/11.0x conso FY26/27E EV/EBITDA. The company mentions that the cell manufacturing is expected to be commissioned in 1-2 quarter while the whole new energy ecosystem would take 4-6 quarters to commercialize,” said Swarnendu Bhushan, Co-Head of Research at PL Capital.

He added, “In absence of any quantitative details, we introduce valuation of Rs111/share for this segment valuing it at 2x the earlier announced capex of Rs750bn. While the stock may face near-term pressure, we upgrade the stock from HOLD to ACCUMULATE due to possible upturn in new energy segment, with target price of Rs1,555 from earlier target of Rs1,497.”

Meanwhile, JM Financial has marginally tweaked its FY26-FY28 estimates. Hence, the target price is unchanged at Rs 1,700 of JM.

JM’s note said, “We reiterate BUY as we expect its net debt to decline gradually because capex will not only moderate (INR 1.2trln-1.4trln p.a. vs. INR 2.3trln in FY23 and INR 1.3trln in FY24 and FY25) but, importantly, also be fully funded by a gradual increase in internal cash generation. RIL’s guidance on keeping reported net debt to EBITDA below 1x (0.7x at end-1QFY26) also gives comfort.”

Moreover, JM’s note added, “we believe RIL has industry leading capabilities across businesses to drive robust 15-20% EPS CAGR over the next 3-5 years, particularly driven by both consumer businesses with Jio’s ARPU is expected to rise at 13% CAGR over FY25-28 with ARPU being on a structural uptrend given the industry structure, future investment needs, and the need to avoid a duopoly market.”

It also said, “Clarity on the potential timeline and valuation of Jio’s listing could be a possible near- to mediumterm trigger. At CMP, the stock is trading at FY27E P/E of 20.4x (3-yr avg: 24.7x) and FY27E EV/EBITDA of 10.3x (3-yr avg: 12.6x). Key risks: a) high capex, resulting in rising net debt with limited earnings visibility from new projects; b) weak subs addition and limited ARPU hike; c) muted growth in the retail business; and d) subdued O2C margins due to macro concerns.”

 

Although Reliance has never split its stock yet, it holds a strong record of dividends.

Since May 2003, Reliance has delivered as many as 24 dividends to its investors, as per Trendlyne data. The last dividend payout was of Rs 10 per share in August 2024. Reliance is yet to make any announcement about dividends in 2025. The current dividend yield of Reliance is 0.34% after adjusting for bonus issues.

Reliance Industries Bonus Issue:

So far, Reliance has delivered up to 3 bonuses. All three bonus issue ratios are 1:1 each, and their ex-dates are in November 2009, September 2017, and October 2024.

Hence, if Reliance were to make any bonus, split or dividend announcements, it would be the first for 2025, and after the last 1:1 bonus payout in Diwali 2024.

 

Leave a Comment