Indian stock markets closed with a rise on Thursday, although there was a lot of ups and downs in them during the day. After the initial heavy fall, the benchmark index made a strong recovery. Sensex and Nifty closed with slight gains. This was the second consecutive session in the new financial year (FY27) when the market recorded gains.
Going forward, the market is likely to remain volatile and affected by many events. Its direction will largely depend on the developments happening in the Middle East, especially on the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. If this disruption continues for a long time, crude oil prices may remain above the $100 level. This will increase the pressure of inflation and current account deficit, and investors will avoid taking risks and turn towards safe investments.
On the other hand, the monetary policy meeting of RBI is also going to be held in the same week. The decisions of the meeting starting from April 6 will be announced by the RBI Governor on April 8. This time there is a possibility of increase in inflation estimates and decrease in GDP estimates. Besides, a decision may also be taken to keep the interest rates on hold. Also, the market trend will depend on the stance of RBI MPC. What kind of thinking does RBI have for the coming days? Let us tell you in detail on which factors the final movement of the stock market will depend…
Iran deal deadline nears
The conflict between Iran and the US-Israel alliance is continuously increasing. Leaders from all sides are warning that the situation may worsen. Trump warned the Islamic Republic on Saturday that if Tehran fails to meet his demands—including reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz—there will be “a massive catastrophe” within 48 hours. “Remember when I gave Iran 10 days to ‘make a deal’ or ‘open the Strait of Hormuz’? Time is running out,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. There are 48 hours left, after which a huge disaster will befall them, God bless!”
Crude oil prices around $110
There has been a huge jump in oil prices in 2026. Amid rising tensions between the US and Iran, Brent crude has recorded an extraordinary gain of 56 per cent in a month – its biggest rise ever. There is a lot of pressure on the global oil market, because Donald Trump has indicated the possibility of intensifying military action. Due to this, crude oil prices are rising towards the highest level in many years. The price of Brent crude had crossed $109 for some time, after which it softened a bit and came around $106. At the same time, the price of WTI crude reached above $111, reflecting concerns about supply shortages and rising geopolitical risk premium.
FII exodus continues
In March, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) made huge sales, which reached Rs 1.22 lakh crore. This was the highest monthly outflow so far. There were many reasons behind this record selloff, which included the ongoing conflict, sudden rise in crude oil prices beyond $100, continuous weakening of the rupee and strengthening of the US dollar. However, continuous selling by FPIs has corrected the valuations of the Indian market, making them reasonable and even quite attractive in some segments. Nevertheless, any significant improvement in FPI investment will depend on reduction in geopolitical tensions, which may also lead to softening of crude oil prices.
Rupee’s fall stopped due to RBI restrictions
The Indian rupee rose sharply against the US dollar on Thursday. The rupee recorded its biggest intraday gain in more than 12 years after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased restrictions on offshore derivatives to prevent the rupee from falling sharply. The rupee closed at 93.10 against the US dollar, up 1.8% from its previous close of 94.83.
This comes after the RBI on Wednesday barred banks from giving rupee non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) to resident and non-resident customers. Banks can still offer deliverable FX contracts for hedging, but users cannot offset those deals with positions taken offshore. The measures have hit the $149 billion-a-day market and analysts are calling them one of the toughest measures in more than a decade.
RBI policy meeting
On the other hand, the monetary policy meeting of RBI is going to start on Monday. Which will run till 8th April. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the policy on the same day. Experts say that RBI can keep pressing the pause button on the policy rate. Also, given the circumstances, inflation estimates may increase. Due to fiscal deficit and falling rupee, RBI may also reduce the GDP estimates for financial year 2027. Due to which pressure may be seen in the stock market.
weak technical status
Nifty is currently stabilizing around the level of 22,700, but its overall structure is still showing a downward trend. The market is stable, but no strong momentum is visible in it. If Nifty falls below the level of 22,300, then selling pressure may increase and the index may move towards the level of 22,000–21,800, which is an important support area. On the upside, 22,80023,000 level remains an immediate resistance band, followed by a strong supply zone at 23,20023,500. Only a sustained rise above these levels will indicate a meaningful recovery. Momentum indicators remain weak, indicating a lack of strength in the current uptrend.
After recent volatility, Sensex is stabilizing near 73,300 level, but its overall structure still remains fragile. Immediate resistance lies in the range of 73,800-74,000, while a sustained rise above 75,000 is required for a meaningful improvement in market sentiment. On the downside, a break below 72,000 can extend the correction to 71,500–71,000 levels. Although selective buying may be seen at lower lower levels, strong confidence is still missing.