When it rains, it pours. At present, this seems to apply to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack, which has shocked the nation.
But in the affairs of the BJP, they have gotten a much-needed breather – on the issue of the election of the next party chief.
The postponement of the election of the successor to incumbent BJP president J.P. Nadda in view of the attack has come as a godsend.
The fact is that the world’s largest party is, virtually, headless for nearly two years, and it is still unclear when a new BJP President will be finally in place.
So the news of the postponement has not come as a surprise. It was much anticipated, as nothing was working out.
What is a surprise, if not a shock, is the failure of Modi and Shah to find a replacement for Nadda in the past year. It is no secret that the duo has been running the party with an iron hand, with the rest of the leaders playing sidekicks.
It is not that Modi-Shah did not try, but it looks more like they did not succeed. And thereby hangs a tale.
Incumbent BJP president Nadda already received two extensions
The names of Manohar Lal Khattar, Bhupender Yadav, and Dharmendra Pradhan were being bandied about at some point in time. Either they have been close to Modi or Shah. There was also speculation that the next BJP chief would be a woman. The name of Andhra BJP President D. Puradndreswari was also among those doing the rounds in this regard.
Nadda, a known lightweight and considered a close associate of Modi, could perhaps be the longest-serving BJP chief since its inception in 1980. Thanks to the grant of two extensions, one before the Lok Sabha polls last year and now due to the Pahalgam attack.
There is no official word so far as to when Nadda’s replacement will be elected, but it is quite clear that it cannot happen before the Pahalgam issue becomes a thing of the past. “Chun chun ke marenge” is the battle cry.
Incidentally, all the news on the issue of the next BJP president has been, almost without fail, sourced to unnamed party sources.
India might be the world’s largest democracy, and the BJP might be boasting of being the world’s largest party, but it looks as if nobody is authorised to speak. Only the top two decide.
It is a fact that the postponement has given Modi and Shah the much-needed breather as the issue appeared to have become a vexed affair. But breather does not mean that it is becoming an easy thing for them, given the fact that the more time passes, the more the matter will be debated internally.
The delay reflects that all is not well in the world’s largest party, whatever might be the projections from the official camp. How to respond to the Pahalgam terror attack has come as the biggest challenge for Modi since becoming Prime Minister 11 years back. Shah, being the Home Minister, is directly responsible for security in Jammu and Kashmir, as it is a Union Territory.
Why the present scenario suits the RSS
Interestingly, this type of situation suits the RSS, which has been lately having second thoughts on the way the BJP was being conducted since 2019, when Modi had secured a bigger majority in the Lok Sabha polls on the back of the Balakot airstrikes.
Reports quoting unnamed sources said that the RSS is pitching for regular meetings for coordination with the party so as to facilitate decisions by the government.
In what a prominent newspaper described as a “significant and rare” development, the RSS chief had met the PM at his official residence here last week. The meeting had come in the immediate aftermath of a high-level security review following the Pahalgam attack.
While organisational issues are bound to be of secondary priority for Modi-Shah at present, the fear is that as more time is taken for a decision, the more it will become complex. This suits the RSS more, which has been given short shrift in various ways or sought to be manipulated while deciding the issue since 2014.
It was not an accident that the Prime Minister visited the RSS headquarters in Nagpur for the first time this year after his ascension to the the top post in the country in May 2014. Modi’s trait from his days as the Chief Minister of Gujarat is that he wants total control of the party and the government and attempts to sideline others by whatever means.
It is common knowledge that Nitin Gadkari was made a victim by a powerful clique in the party when he was seeking a second term as the party chief. It was intended to help Modi’s takeover of the organisation through Rajnath Singh.
The problem with the mainstream media is that it doesn’t even acknowledge that there could be a problem within the BJP and that the saffron party is delaying a decision.
The presence of Sanjay Joshi, a known detractor of Modi, in the RSS despite attempts by Modi Shah to marginalise him in the past more than a decade ago, and his activities are overlooked by this media.
But the failure of Modi-Shah to secure a majority in the Lok Sabha polls a year ago has come as a godsend to the beleaguered RSS. Talk was that RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat would have been the most vulnerable person in the Sangh Parivar if Modi-Shah had secured a majority for the third time. RSS might be projecting itself as a cultural organisation, but those at the helm understand politics, including the one that is played out against them.
Earlier, RSS was being taken for granted
This has led to a somewhat fluid situation, as those sidelined by the PM and his man Friday has got a shoulder to lean on. Reports had it that the RSS itself was facing somewhat of a suffocation the way it was taken for granted, especially since 2019 when Modi secured a better majority for the BJP than in 2014.
This has silently led to a change of dynamics with the sidelined RSS becoming more than alive and alert to the new situation.
Reports had it some 10 days back that the BJP has decided to postpone its national presidential election for the time being. The decision was taken by the party’s top leadership. The fresh schedule will be announced later. JP Nadda is set to continue as president for the time being. Nadda has held the position since 2020. The BJP had planned to hold the election in May, but it has now been deferred.
As per the BJP’s constitution, the election for the national president is conducted following the completion of state-level organisational elections. Historically, the BJP has seen its national president elected through consensus since its establishment on April 6, 1980. The delay this time shows that all is not well in the ruling party.