Eleven days in, and French Open 2026 has been turned on its head. La terre battue parisienne has swallowed giant after giant, leaving one of the most astonishing tournament scenarios in modern Grand Slam history.
For the first time in memory, both the men’s and women’s singles draw are guaranteed a maiden Slam winner. The only question is who claims them.
The mayhem in the men’s draw started even before the main draw was underway. Carlos Alcaraz, the two-time defending champion, pulled out of the tournament owing to his continued recovery from a wrist injury. Hence, last year’s runner-up and world number one Jannik Sinner became the overwhelming favourite after a 30-match winning streak across the hard and clay court season. But he did not last more than two rounds. The Paris heat took a savage toll on his body and, despite building a two-set lead against Juan Manuel Cerundolo, he could not hold on.
In the ‘Sincaraz’ era, Novak Djokovic has been merely an afterthought. With both not present, emotionally and statistically, he became the favourite. But just when he danced his hopes for the long-awaited 25th major, he too was struck down. 24 hours after Sinner’s ouster, Djokovic was eliminated in the third round by Brazil’s 19-year-old Joao Fonseca. The Serb, too, had gone two sets up. His body, at 39, finally betrayed him.
On the women’s side, the story was no less seismic. Reigning Australian Open winner Elena Rybakina was the first of the title hopefuls to suffer a blow, losing in the second round. Defending champion Coco Gauff, who lacked form ahead of his trip to Paris, lost in the third round. Four-time Roland Garros champion Iga Swiatek, who had the backing of Rafael Nadal this time, having made a trip to his academy in Mallorca ahead of the tournament, was knocked out without making her customary deep run.
And then on Wednesday, the last giant standing – world number one Aryna Sabalenka – was beaten in one of the most inspiring comebacks in recent years. Diana Shnaider, staring down defeat at 3-6 and 1-4 in the second set, found something extraordinary within herself and reeled off the last ten games of the match to knock out the top seed in stunning fashion.
Paris gasped, and then it realised: a new champion is coming, in both draws, without question.
The Men: Zverev the top favourite?
Of the remaining four, Alexander Zverev stands apart. He has consistently been among the top-ranked players in men’s tennis and has long been considered a dark horse for a Grand Slam title. His biggest hurdle has never been a lack of talent, but rather his ability to handle the biggest moments against the very best players. With Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic all out of the picture, however, the opportunity has never looked more inviting. If there was ever a time for Zverev to finally end his wait for a maiden major, this is it.
Among the semifinalists, the German is comfortably the most experienced. He has reached three Grand Slam finals and, on two occasions — the 2020 US Open and the 2024 French Open – found himself just one set away from the title. At Roland Garros specifically, his record is formidable. He has reached one final, three semifinals and has consistently been among the deepest runners in the draw year after year.
As for the other three, Jakub Mensik is explosive and fearless, but at 20 and in his first Grand Slam semifinal, the magnitude of the occasion could yet catch up with him. Felix Auger-Aliassime possesses both the game and the experience of deep Slam runs, and on current form appears the most capable of pulling off an upset. Matteo Arnaldi reached the semifinals in circumstances no one could have scripted, his quarterfinal against compatriot Matteo Berrettini ended when the latter retired through injury during the second set on Wednesday. But Arnaldi had shown enough before that point, and across his run to the last four, to suggest he belongs here. That includes a win in five sets against Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round.
The draw is open. The opportunity is real. Zverev is the favourite. The rest are chasing him.
The Women: Who’s the favourite here?
That is the most difficult question!
Mirra Andreeva heads into the last four as the highest remaining seed at number eight and is the only player remaining with Grand Slam semifinal experience, having been at this stage in Paris before. While the familiarity with the occasion will matter and so will her form throughout the fortnight in Paris, but the Russian will be up against the in-form Marta Kostyuk, who arrives on the back of a 17-match winning streak. That run includes two back-to-back titles in clay – Open de Rouen and Madrid Open. In the latter, she beat Andreeva in the final in straight sets. Moreover, With rain forecast for Thursday, the roof is likely to be closed for both matches. That would suit Kostyuk, who hits the ball notably flatter than her rivals.
Shnaider’s stunning takedown of Sabalenka will give her belief that defies ranking or logic, while unseeded Polish player Maja Chwalinska’s disrupting, rhythm-killing game has already undone far more fancied opponents.