A US intelligence report has classified Pakistan, along with Russia and China, as a significant nuclear threat. The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment highlights Pakistan’s development of advanced missiles, including potential ICBMs that could strike the US.
The United States intelligence has classified Pakistan along with major powers such as Russia and China as posing a significant nuclear threat to the US. US intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard presented the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) of the US Intelligence Community, which was released on March 18 by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Pakistan’s Nuclear and Missile Ambitions
As per the report, the US Intelligence Community (IC) has identified several critical areas concerning Pakistan’s evolving military capabilities, its role in regional instability, and the persistent threat of terrorism. The report assesses that Pakistan is researching and developing a variety of advanced missile delivery systems. Crucially, the report notes that Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development potentially could include Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) with a range capable of striking the US.
“The US secure nuclear deterrent continues to ensure safety in the Homeland against strategic threats. However, Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan have been researching and developing an array of novel, advanced, or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads, that put our Homeland within range,” Gabbard said in her opening remarks before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence for the annual “Worldwide Threats” hearing.
The Intelligence Community, she said, assesses that the collective threats from these countries to the US will expand collectively to more than 16,000 missiles by 2035, from the current assessed figure of more than 3,000 missiles.
The Enduring Threat of Terrorism
Pakistan also remains a central concern in the global fight against Islamist militancy.
The US, it said, continues to face a complex and evolving threat landscape with a geographically diverse set of Islamist terrorist actors seeking to propagate their ideology globally and harm Americans, even as al-Qaida and ISIS are significantly weaker than at their respective peaks during the early 2000s and mid-2010s.
ISIS-K and Regional Threats
The report identifies ISIS-K (Islamic State – Khorasan Province) as a primary external plotting threat in South Asia. ISIS-K operatives are noted to be operating within the region, utilizing ungoverned or poorly monitored areas for recruitment and planning, it said.
“US military operations and collaboration with international partners in Iraq, Pakistan, Somalia, and Syria during 2025 removed key terrorist leaders and operatives, degrading the capability of al-Qaida and ISIS to pursue terrorist attacks against the Homeland and US interests overseas,” it said.
Al-Qaida and ISIS pose the biggest threat to US interests overseas in parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, where these groups operate. “These groups will continue to exploit political instability and ungoverned territory, striving to rebuild their capabilities and relying on the resilience of geographically distant elements,” the IC report said.
Growing Risk of Regional Conflicts
Further, the US intel report stated that armed conflict across the globe may pose a threat to US interests and forces through the end of the decade. This dynamic stems from a combination of major power competition, state and nonstate actors choosing to use force to achieve their goals, instability within states and regions, and increasing military and unconventional capabilities of both state and nonstate actors.
“Even if the great powers refrain from conflict, many regional and smaller powers are growing much more willing to use force to pursue their interests. Countries such as Egypt, Israel, Pakistan, Turkey, and the UAE are using a mix of lethal aid, proxy forces, or their own military assets to provoke or undermine their rivals or to tilt nearby conflicts in their favour,” the US intel report stated.
India-Pakistan: A Nuclear Flashpoint
The document highlights that the relationship between India and Pakistan remains a significant risk for nuclear conflict. The IC continues to monitor the high-stakes friction between two nuclear-armed neighbours. It noted that while neither side seeks a full-scale war, the report warns that a “catalyst for crisis” such as a major terrorist attack in Pahalgam last year in Jammu and Kashmir in could lead to rapid military escalation.
Pahalgam Attack as a ‘Catalyst for Crisis’
“The terrorist attack last year near Pahalgam, in the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, demonstrated the dangers of terrorist attacks sparking conflict. President Trump’s intervention de-escalated the most recent nuclear tensions, and we assess that neither country seeks to return to open conflict, but that conditions exist for terrorist actors to continue to create catalysts for crises,” the US intel document stated.
The Pahalgam terror attack, on April 22, 2025, killed 26 people, including a Nepali citizen. Terrorists came down from the mountain in Baisaran valley in Jammu and Kashmir and started firing at the tourists who frequent the place, which is often dubbed as ‘mini Switzerland’ because of its long, lush green meadows.
Following the attack, India launched multiple strikes on Pakistani terror bases, dubbed ‘Operation Sindoor’ on the intervening night of May 6 and 7. In a well-coordinated and precise operation, the Indian Armed Forces carried out strikes on nine terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), killing over 100 terrorists, along with their trainers, handlers and associates. Most of those eliminated belonged to terror outfits such as Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen. (ANI)
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