Fearing a conflict with India and the support American military in it, Pakistan is secretly in the process of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could reach the US, Washington’s intelligence agencies have concluded.
The revelation comes in a report published by Foreign Affairs magazine in its latest July-August issue.
“Although Pakistan claims its nuclear program is strictly focused on deterring India, which enjoys conventional military superiority, U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that the Pakistani military is developing an ICBM that could reach the continental United States,” the report said.
Pakistan’s intention behind acquiring such a weapon may be to prevent the US from either eliminating its arsenal in a “preventive attack”, given that Islamabad possesses nuclear weapons or in the probable scenario of the Pentagon getting involved on New Delhi’s behalf if an India-Pakistan conflict happens in the future.
The concerning claims come in the wake of India’s Operation Sindoor, in which the Indian Armed Forces launched targeted strikes on terror launchpads in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir on the intervening night of May 6-7 to avenge the 26 deaths in the Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir on April 22.
Pakistan risks becoming America’s nuclear adversary
The report further adds, citing officials, that developing a missile with a reach of up to US territory, Washington “will have no choice but to treat the country as a nuclear adversary, no other country with ICBMs that can target the United States is considered a friend. In short, mounting nuclear dangers now lurk in every region of vital interest to the United States”
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and growing missile ambitions
Pakistan has long maintained that its nuclear programme is aimed solely at deterring India. Its development efforts have traditionally focused on short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, designed to target Indian cities and military infrastructure.
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), which can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads and strike targets over 5,500 kilometres away, are not currently part of Pakistan’s arsenal. The country’s most advanced missile tested so far is the Shaheen-III, a surface-to-surface medium-range ballistic missile capable of hitting targets up to 2,700 kilometres, effectively covering much of India.
However, Pakistan’s interest in developing an ICBM may reflect a strategic shift. Analysts believe Islamabad could be seeking to deter potential U.S. intervention, particularly in the event of a future conflict with India. An ICBM capability might serve as a warning to Washington against any preemptive attempt to neutralise Pakistan’s nuclear assets or to intervene militarily on India’s behalf.
US sanctions raise pressure
This ambition has not gone unnoticed. The United States has expressed growing concern over Pakistan’s long-range missile activities. In 2023, Washington imposed new sanctions targeting the country’s missile development programme. The sanctions included the National Development Complex — Pakistan’s state-run defence agency overseeing missile production — and three associated firms.
These measures froze any assets the entities may hold in the U.S. and banned American companies from engaging in business with them. The U.S. justified the move by citing Pakistan’s attempts to procure components for long-range ballistic missiles, according to a State Department factsheet. Islamabad, for its part, rejected the sanctions, labelling them as politically motivated and unjust.
Nuclear capability outside global controls
Pakistan, estimated to possess around 170 nuclear warheads, remains outside the framework of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a global agreement aimed at curbing the spread of nuclear weapons and encouraging peaceful use of atomic energy.
The country’s continuing efforts to upgrade its missile capabilities, particularly towards acquiring ICBMs, risk escalating tensions not just in South Asia but also in its broader relationship with the West — especially the United States. The evolving situation is being closely monitored, amid fears that a regional arms race could take on new and far more dangerous dimensions.