The Opta supercomputer predicts Inter Milan has a 36.09% chance of winning the Scudetto, almost three times higher than Napoli.
During the start of a season, many would be wishing that their football club win something and some of this come true. While many fans discuss their gut feelings, there are those who rely purely on numbers and data. Enter the Opta Predictor, a powerful supercomputer that simulates the football season by crunching vast amounts of statistics and historic performance metrics.
What is the Opta Predictor?
Opta Predictor doesn’t leave room for guesswork. It runs 10,000 simulations of the league based on team strengths, weaknesses, past results, and performance indicators. From these simulations, it calculates the probabilities for who will win the Scudetto, qualify for the Champions League and Europa League, and what the final table might look like. It’s a cold, precise forecast—a mathematical lens on what the season might bring.
Why Inter Milan Is the Clear Favorite
At the top of the Opta Predictor’s forecast is Inter Milan, with a 36.09% chance of lifting the Scudetto. This figure is nearly three times higher than that of their closest rival, Napoli. The model predicts Inter will finish with around 76 points, enough to stay firmly ahead of the pack. Their chances of qualifying for the Champions League are also very high—estimated at 78.25%.
What sets Inter apart? The squad remains strong, retaining key players and adding new options. By many measures, they’re even better equipped than the team that reached the Champions League final recently. That said, some nuances, such as the managerial change from Inzaghi to Chivu, are challenging to factor precisely. Opta acknowledges that Chivu’s relatively short professional coaching record leaves some unknowns.
Napoli: Not the Team to Beat?
Despite being defending champions with a reinforced team and Antonio Conte at the helm, Napoli doesn’t emerge as the top contender in Opta’s eyes. Their chances of winning the league are ranked at just 13.25%, roughly a third of Inter’s. Possible reasons include the demands of competing on multiple European fronts and Inter’s perceived dominance.
Conte himself has remarked that Napoli must be a thorn in the side of Inter, Juventus, and Milan. But according to the supercomputer, that ambition may fall short.
Atalanta Close Behind Napoli
Another interesting figure in the projections is Atalanta. Although the club faces changes, including a new coach and the departure of top scorer Retegui, Opta sees Atalanta as a strong contender close to Napoli’s level. They have a 13.18% chance of securing the Scudetto and a 51% likelihood of making it back into the Champions League. The message is clear: despite transitions, Atalanta’s ambitions remain high.
Roma Surging Past Milan and Juventus
Roma stands out as a surprise package. Just last year, their odds of winning the title were under 1%, but now Opta gives them a 10.29% chance of clinching the Scudetto. The arrival of coach Gasperini has evidently brought out the best in the squad and raised hopes for a Champions League return, which the supercomputer estimates at nearly 46%.
On the other hand, Milan and Juventus hold similar chances but are not seen as title contenders. Milan, led by Massimiliano Allegri, boasts a 7.46% Scudetto probability and a 37.7% chance of Champions League qualification. Juventus, under Tudor, posts comparable numbers, with a 7.33% Scudetto chance and 38.3% chance for the Champions League.
The Battle for Fourth Place and Outside Threats
Beyond the top six, teams like Lazio, Bologna, and Fiorentina are battling to round out the European qualification spots. Lazio holds a 4.7% chance of winning the league, though their real focus appears to be Champions League qualification at 29.7%. Bologna and Fiorentina hover slightly behind with smaller but notable probabilities for European places.
Smaller clubs Como and Torino pop up as potential dark horses. While their chances are modest, Opta ranks them as teams with the capacity to surprise and grow through the season.
Predicted League Table
After running 10,000 simulations, here’s how Opta’s supercomputer forecasts the 2025/26 Serie A standings:
- Inter
- Napoli
- Atalanta
- Roma
- Milan
- Juventus
- Lazio
- Bologna
- Fiorentina
- Como
- Torino
- Genoa
- Udinese
- Cagliari
- Sassuolo
- Cremonese
- Verona
- Pisa
- Parma
- Lecce
How many of these predictions will prove true? We’ll find out when the season wraps up in May 2026. Until then, the Opta Predictor offers a fascinating, data-driven glimpse into the battles that lie ahead on the pitch.