With the index hovering near 24,200, analysts are split — some expect continued selling towards 24,000, while others believe the oversold market could spark a relief rally.
Indian equity markets have been in a downtrend for six consecutive weeks, following the U.S.-India trade deal overhang and sustained foreign capital outflows. As we start a fresh trading week, investors will be watching the crucial meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15, as well as any developments on the U.S.-China trade, which is running up against an August 12 deadline.
The markets are likely to see a subdued start on Monday. Here’s what SEBI-registered analysts make of the trade setup for August 11.
Nifty Levels To Watch
Analyst Dipak Takodara noted that with Nifty closing below the 24,467 – 24,377 support band on Friday, the short-term trend has turned decisively negative.
He identified the next support zone around 24,200-24,164; below that, the larger swing support sits at 23,935-23,847. On the upside, the first hurdle is seen at 24,467-24,377 (broken support = new resistance), followed by the 24,917-24,882 band and the zone around 50-DMA at 25,000-25,050.
Takodara highlighted that the drop in volumes on Friday raises a possibility that this breakdown might be a false one. However, if it’s not, the index could remain under pressure and drift toward 24,200, and if that doesn’t hold, even 24,000 might come into play, he added.
Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services noted that on the daily timeframe, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has been breached, and the Nifty index now seems to be heading towards the 200-day EMA at 24,200. He believes that the market is in an oversold territory, facing exhaustive selling pressure, and needs a fresh bounce to stabilize sentiment going ahead.
According to Sharma, finding a bottom in the current market behavior is challenging. For intraday setup, he identified immediate support at 24,340-24,350. A break below this would lead the index to 24,280-24,200.
On the upside, he sees immediate resistance at 24,400-24,410, followed by 24,460-24,530, and higher. Short positions are weakening, which could pave the way for a technical bounce during the week ahead, Sharma concluded.
Meanwhile, Ashish Kyal observed that the Nifty index has moved below the high volume profile area near 24,470, which could put further pressure on prices till the Gann levels of 24,103, or the Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) target of 24,000. Given the strong selling indicators, a move above 24,530 is needed for a sustainable pause. Until then, it remains a ‘sell on rise’ market, he concluded.
Good Time To Invest In Quality Stocks
Arun Mantri believes the week ahead offers a good opportunity to invest in quality stocks, as negative news has been factored in, and any positive developments would likely trigger an upmove.
He reiterated that for the short term, Nifty has broken down technically and found support at 24,100-24,180, which also coincides with the 200-day moving average (DMA), regarded as a good buying opportunity for short and medium-term investors in the market. On the flip side, Mantri identified near-term resistance at 24,650.
Stocks To Add To Watchlist
And Mayank Singh Chandel noted that while Nifty and the broader markets have been under pressure since the end of June, some stocks have stood out and tested new highs. He recommended keeping these three stocks on the watchlist going ahead.
Kajaria Ceramics has broken out of a cup and handle pattern
Yatharth Hospital recently broke its all-time high from November 2024
Star Cement just crossed its all-time high from May 2024
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