Experts expect Nifty to remain range-bound between 25,000–25,200 in the short term. A close below 24,900 could invite fresh selling.
Indian equity markets ended a range-bound session lower on Wednesday, with the Nifty managing to hold the 25,000 level. Even as benchmark indices snapped a four-session gaining streak, it saw Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turn buyers for second day in a row.
In the broader market, however, sentiment was weaker with the Nifty Midcap index slipping 0.5% and the Nifty Smallcap falling 0.7%, showing some pressure outside large-cap heavyweights.
Will the short-term support of 25,000 hold this week? SEBI-registered analysts shared the trade set-up for October 9 on Stocktwits.
Trade Setup For Thursday
From a technical perspective, Mayank Singh Chandel noted that the Nifty index was still trading above all key moving averages and has managed to hold its higher base. He added that the bullish structure remains intact as long as 25,000 is not decisively breached. The RSI is stable, but a breakout above resistance levels is required for momentum to pick up again.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at 25,000, followed by crucial support at 24,900 (confluence of 50-day EMA and 50% retracement of the recent rally). On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 25,130, followed by 25,200. A close above this level will be important for bulls to regain control.
He sees significant hurdle for Nifty at 25,450; breaking this would open the path for the next leg higher. Options data shows that 25,000–25,200 range will act as a tight band in the immediate term, with traders watching for a breakout.
Chandel concluded that as long as 25,000 holds, the buy-on-dips strategy remains favourable. A decisive close above 25,200 could set the stage for a rally towards 25,450. On the other hand, a break below 24,900 could invite fresh selling pressure and drag Nifty index towards 24,600.
Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services said that, positionally, the key levels to watch were between 25,950 and 25,900, where the 20 and 50-day EMAs are currently positioned. Until prices decisively breach these averages on the downside, maintaining a negative bias is not advisable.
He added that while the broader market structure remains inclined toward the upside, constant rejections at higher levels limit immediate momentum. In the absence of any strong triggers, Sharma expects markets to remain rangebound within the 25,200–24,400 range.
He also cautioned that unless Nifty decisively falls below the 200-day EMA, the chances of a deep correction are reduced.
For intraday trade, Sharma identified immediate support at 25,030, followed by 25,000–24,980, where the market is likely to find buying interest. If the Nifty index failed to hold this, it could see correction till 24,930–24,880, introducing short-term pressure below 25,000. On the upside, 25,080 serves as an important support-resistance flip level. Nifty may attempt to retest 25,140–25,170–25,220. A sustained move beyond 25,200–25,250 would likely confirm renewed gains.
A&Y Market Research sees Nifty resistance between 25,215-25,246, with support at 25,009-25,075. For Bank Nifty, they see resistance at 56,133-56,205, and support at 55,850-55,921.
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