The analyst expects a range-bound market this week, advising a buy-on-dips strategy. GST reforms and India–US relations could act as near-term triggers, but weak FII sentiment remains a drag.
Indian equity benchmarks ended last week on a positive note, supported by robust Q1 GDP data and GST policy reforms. Benchmark indices ended over 1% higher, with the Nifty index closing above 24,700.
Sentiment improved after India’s Q1 GDP growth came in at 7.8%, beating expectations and marking the fastest pace in five quarters. Optimism was further boosted by the GST Council’s move to simplify tax slabs to 5% and 18%, eliminating the 12% and 28% slabs effective September 22.
SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel shared the weekly outlook for markets as well as next triggers that investors should keep an eye on.
Key Catalysts For Week Ahead
India–US Relations: Prime Minister Narendra Modi appreciated US President Donald Trump’s “positive assessment” of India-US ties after recent tariff tensions. Chandel said that this signals an attempt to cool trade concerns, which could support investor sentiment in the near term.
Policy Tailwinds: He added that GST reforms are likely to keep cyclical sectors like FMCG, auto, and consumption in focus.
The Overhang
Chandel highlighted the relentless Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) selling in Indian equities. August FII holdings hit a 13-year low, with the long-short ratio at 7.43%, which indicates cautious positioning, suggesting upside may remain capped unless FIIs return aggressively.
Technical View
On the weekly chart, Nifty index formed a bullish candle but with a long upper wick, signaling selling pressure at higher levels. Chandel noted that the index rebounded sharply from its recent swing low of 24,400, ending the week in green.
He believes that the long-term trend stays positive as long as the Nifty index trades above the 100-day Moving Average (DMA) and 200-DMA. Short- to medium-term uncertainty persists with price action oscillating around the 20-DMA and 50-DMA.
On the downside, Chandel flagged immediate support at 24,400 – 24,350, followed by critical support at 24,000 – 23,800. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 24,800, followed by 25,000 – 25,150, which was a major hurdle and a previous swing high.
Options Data Insights
Derivatives data shows heavy call writing at 24,800 & 25,000, indicating resistance at these levels. Meanwhile, put writing is the strongest at 24,500, suggesting solid support. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stood stable around 1.27, hinting at range-bound consolidation unless triggered by fresh catalysts.
Outlook For The Week
Chandel shared three possible outlooks for the markets in the week ahead. In the base case (neutral to positive), if the Nifty index crosses above 24,500, the bias stays slightly positive with potential upside toward 24,800 and 25,000.
In the bullish scenario, a breakout above 25,150 could fuel a rally toward 25,500 – 25,700. On the other hand, a break below 24,400 could drag the index to 24,000 – 23,800 in a bearish scenario.
According to Chandel, the broader trend remains constructive, but short-term moves may stay range-bound between 24,400 and 24,800. He advised traders to remain nimble and adopt a buy-on-dips strategy near supports, while keeping a close eye on global cues and the behavior of FIIs.
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