The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Thursday, tracking weak global market cues after the announcement of US Federal Reserve policy and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 26,163 level, a discount of nearly 75 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The US Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 25 bps, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the likelihood of a future interest-rate cut in December monetary policy. The market odds of the Fed delivering another quarter-point cut in December have eased to around 68%.
On Wednesday, the Indian stock market rallied, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 26,000 level.
The Sensex gained 368.97 points, or 0.44%, to close at 84,997.13, while the Nifty 50 settled 117.70 points, or 0.45%, higher at 26,053.90.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex continued its upward momentum on daily charts, forming a bullish candle, and on intraday charts, it is holding a higher bottom formation, which is largely positive.
“For day traders, 84,800 would act as a key support level. Above this, Sensex could continue its positive momentum towards 85,300 – 85,500. On the flip side, below 84,800, we could see a quick intraday dip up to 84,500. Further downside may also continue, potentially dragging the index down to 84,200,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Om Ghawalkar, Market Analyst, Share.Market said that the immediate barrier for Sensex is the 85,000 mark, and breakout targets are 85,300 – 85,500, while crucial support lies at 84,200.
Nifty OI Data
With the monthly F&O expiry now behind, markets witnessed reduced volatility as traders rolled over positions to the new series. Following expiry-led adjustments, overall sentiment remained constructive, supported by stable global cues and sustained buying in select sectors, said Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst – Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.
Derivative data now indicates fresh support building around 26,000 – 25,900, while resistance has shifted higher to 26,100 – 26,200, suggesting a strengthening bullish bias, he added.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 crossed the high of the Doji candle and formed a bullish candle on the daily chart, reinforcing strength.
“A long bull candle was formed on the daily chart and Nifty 50 is now placed at the edge of moving above the hurdle of previous swing high around 26,100 levels. The overall bullish chart pattern indicates a possibility of decisive breakout of recent consolidation movement in the market,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 continues to be positive, and a sustainable upmove from here could open the next upside target of around 26,400 – 26,500 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 25,800 levels.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd. highlighted that the Nifty 50 index is still placed below the recent high of 26,100.
“A firm break above 26,100 will open the doors for 26,280, where the previous all-time high is located. On the downside, 25,800 and 25,670 will serve as key supports. As long as the index holds above 25,670, traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy,” said Yedve.
Om Ghawalkar said that the key resistance for Nifty 50 is 26,100, with support at 25,750 – 25,850.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 171.15 points, or 0.29%, higher at 58,385.25 on Wednesday, forming a small-bodied candle with a relatively long lower shadow on the daily chart, reflecting buying interest at lower levels.
“Bank Nifty index continues to trade well above its key short- and long-term moving averages, reaffirming the prevailing bullish trend. The RSI stands at 74.19, while it signals an overbought condition, there is still some room for further upside before any meaningful correction sets in. Additionally, the ADX is rising, which indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening, supporting the case for continued upward momentum,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.
Looking at key levels, he added that the 58,400 – 58,500 zone will act as an immediate resistance for the index.
“If the Bank Nifty index manages to give a follow through move above the level of 58,500, the pullback can continue further till 59,000 level. While, on the downside, the zone of 58,100 – 58,000 will act as a crucial support for the index,” said Shah.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities noted that the upper Bollinger Band is expanding higher, indicating sufficient headroom for the Bank Nifty index to move further northward. The RSI is hovering around 74, signalling strong momentum, while the MACD stays firmly in positive territory.
“The immediate support is placed around 57,950 – 57,800, while the index now looks poised to break its all-time high of 58,577.50. Overall, the index remains in a strong position, with dips likely to be bought into in the next session,” said Mehra.