Trade Set-up for January 1: The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open at record higher on the first day of the New Year, January 1 amid thin trade as most global markets are closed today.
The trends on Gift Nifty indicated a flat but positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading at a new high of 26,341, up 66 points or 0.25% from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
In the previous session, the Indian stock market saw broad-based buying across segments on the final trading day of 2025, as short covering lifted sentiment amid optimism that the year ahead will be stronger. Expectations of earnings growth, progress on an India-US trade deal, and a potential return of foreign investors supported the rebound.
The Sensex rose 546 points, or 0.64%, to close at 85,220.60, while the Nifty 50 gained 191 points, or 0.74%, to settle at 26,129.60.
Markets are likely to continued seeing stock-specific moves, keeping the benchmark indices confined to a range. Investors remain cautious ahead of the start of the December quarter earnings season, while tracking geopolitical developments.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
As markets welcome the new year, analysts believe the Sensex’s technical setup suggests scope for further upside, provided key support levels continue to hold.
Commenting on the technical outlook, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said the benchmark is showing encouraging signs. “On the daily charts, the Sensex has formed a promising reversal pattern, and a long bullish candle supports the potential for a further uptrend from the current levels,” he said. Chouhan added that “8,5000 and 84,800 would act as immediate support zones, and as long as the market trades above these levels, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue, with upside potential toward 85,800 and even 86,100, while a break below 84,800 would make the trend vulnerable.”
Sharing a similar view, Amruta Shinde, Technical and Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said the index continues to attract buying on declines. “The Sensex held above the 85,000 mark convincingly and respected intraday support, indicating accumulation at lower levels,” she said, adding that support is seen at 84,700-84,800, while immediate resistance lies in the 85,700-85,900 zone. According to her, as long as these support levels remain intact, the near-term trend favours a buy-on-dips strategy.
Nifty OI Data
As markets look ahead to the new year, analysts believe subdued volatility and supportive derivatives positioning could provide a stable base for further upside. With risk indicators remaining calm, traders are closely tracking signals from the options market to gauge whether the recent strength can sustain into early January.
Commenting on the setup, Aakash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said, “Volatility remained subdued, with India VIX staying in the low zone, reflecting stable near-term expectations. Derivatives data showed unwinding of call positions near 26,000 and fresh put writing at higher strikes, reinforcing the breakout and suggesting a positive bias heading into early January.”
Nifty 50 Prediction
As markets head into the new phase of the cycle, analysts believe the Nifty is approaching a decisive zone that could determine the trajectory of the next move. After ending 2025 on a resilient note, the focus has now shifted to whether the benchmark can break out of its consolidation band or face renewed bouts of profit-taking in the near term.
Offering a measured outlook, Ajit Mishra, SVP-Research at Religare Broking, said the index is once again testing the upper boundary of its range. “From a technical standpoint, the Nifty has once again approached the upper end of its prevailing consolidation range near 26,200. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger the next leg of upward momentum, while failure to do so may lead to renewed profit-taking,” Mishra said. He added that while the broader outlook remains positive, a cautious and sector-specific strategy is advisable, with preference for banking, auto and metal stocks.
Echoing a similar tone, Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical and Derivative Research at Angel One, highlighted the market’s underlying strength. “By the end of 2025, the benchmark index demonstrated impressive resilience, achieving double-digit returns exceeding 10%, reflecting the adaptability of domestic participants,” he said. Krishan noted that the broader structure remains robust with the formation of higher highs and higher bottoms, adding that the 26,000 level, aligned with the 20 DEMA, is expected to provide near-term support, while a sustained move above 26,200 could reopen the path toward lifetime highs of 26,325 in the sessions ahead.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Analysts believe banking stocks could set the tone in the near term as traders assess whether the recent rebound has enough strength to evolve into a sustained move.
Commenting on the technical setup, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said Bank Nifty showed early signs of improving sentiment. Bhuva added that momentum indicators are turning supportive, with the RSI entering a bullish crossover near 60, but cautioned that the index remains in a sideways phase and must hold above the 20-day SMA to confirm strength. He pegged immediate support at 59,200, resistance at 59,750, and positional support around 59,000, noting that the next session would be crucial.
Echoing a similar view, Aakash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, highlighted the index’s outperformance in the latest session. He noted that the index defended key support levels convincingly and ended near the day’s highs, signalling accumulation at lower levels. According to him, the immediate resistance zone lies at 59,800-59,900, while 59,300-59,400 remains a critical support area to watch going forward.