Trade Set-up for December 31: The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open in the flat on Wednesday, December 31, the last trading session of the year amid thin trade following muted cues from the global peers.
Most Asian markets including Japan, South Korea and Thailand, are closed today on account of new year’s eve.
The trends on Gift Nifty indicated a flat but positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading near 26,127 level, up 24 points or 0.09% from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
In the previous session, the Indian stock market closed largely flat on Tuesday, December 30, as investors remained cautious amid the absence of fresh domestic triggers and mixed signals from global markets. The Sensex settled at 84,675.08, down 20 points, or 0.02 percent, while the Nifty 50 edged lower by 3 points, or 0.01 percent, to end at 25,938.85.
Markets continued to see stock-specific moves, keeping the benchmark indices confined to a narrow range. Sentiment remained guarded ahead of the start of the December quarter earnings season, while investors also tracked geopolitical developments, particularly updates related to India-US trade talks.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
As markets head into the final stretch of the year, investors appear to be bracing for a decisive move, even as near-term signals remain mixed. With benchmark indices locked in a narrow range, traders are increasingly focusing on technical levels to gauge the next directional trigger.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said the Sensex continues to show signs of indecision on both intraday and daily charts. “Technically, the market has witnessed non-directional activity, with daily charts forming a small candle, suggesting indecisiveness between bulls and bears. Traders appear to be waiting for a breakout on either side, with 85,000 acting as a key resistance zone, while a breach of 84,500 could accelerate selling pressure,” he said.
Chouhan added that in the absence of a clear trend, a level-based trading approach remains the most prudent strategy for day traders, as markets navigate this phase of consolidation.
Nifty OI Data
Derivatives positioning is offering early clues on how traders are bracing for near-term moves, as markets look ahead to the next directional trigger. While volatility remains contained, subtle shifts in options data suggest that participants are becoming more selective.
Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said volatility has inched up but remains benign. “India VIX has risen marginally to 9.67, signalling a slight increase in near-term uncertainty, though the market continues to operate in a low-volatility regime. Aggressive call writing at the 26,000 strike and strong put open interest around 25,900 underline this zone as a crucial pivot, with a sustained move above 26,000 needed to revive bullish momentum,” she said.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Technical indicators suggest that the near-term trajectory remains delicately poised. After a phase of sustained declines, Nifty is attempting to stabilise, but analysts caution that conviction is still lacking.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the index has managed to arrest its correction for now but remains vulnerable to further weakness. “The index has slipped to the upper band of the falling wedge pattern, where the correction appears to have been arrested. However, negative technical factors such as a break below the middle Bollinger Band, a bearish RSI crossover, and a move below the 21 EMA continue to reinforce the short-term downtrend, with immediate support seen in the 25,850-25,870 zone,” he said, adding that a decisive break below this range could intensify bearish sentiment, while resistance remains placed at 26,000.
Echoing a cautious tone, Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical and Derivative Research at Angel One, said recent price action reflects growing indecision among traders. “The benchmark index has formed a Doji candlestick between the 20-day and 50-day DEMAs after four consecutive sessions of decline, highlighting uncertainty in the market. Immediate support lies between 25,900 and 25,850, with 25,700 emerging as a critical level for the near-term trend, while resistance in the 26,100-26,150 zone could, if breached, help the Nifty regain momentum and potentially retest its all-time highs,” he said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Technical signals suggest that Bank Nifty may remain in a wait-and-watch phase, with market participants closely tracking key levels for confirmation.
Vatsal Bhuva, Senior Technical Analyst and Technical Analyst respectively at LKP Securities, said Tuesday’s session reflected continued indecision. “Bank Nifty formed a small candlestick on the daily chart, highlighting indecisiveness among participants. The index is trading sideways within a narrow range, with 58,750 acting as a strong support and 59,300 emerging as a key resistance, while weakening RSI momentum suggests the consolidation phase could extend further,” they said.
Offering a relatively constructive perspective, Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP – Technical and Derivative Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd, pointed to signs of underlying strength near crucial support levels. “The index has formed a bullish engulfing pattern near the 50-day simple moving average, indicating strength. As long as Bank Nifty holds above the 58,700-58,800 zone, short-term traders can continue to follow a buy-on-dips strategy, with resistance seen around 59,550,” he said.