A new study reveals El Niño can increase extreme rainfall in parts of India, challenging century-old beliefs. Regions like central and southwest India face heavy rain. This finding is critical for improving flood prediction and disaster preparedness.
For more than a century, it was believed that El Niño typically leads to lower rainfall in India. However, new scientific study has changed our understanding of how El Niño influences India’s summer monsoon. Scientists from the City College of New York (CCNY) and Columbia University have discovered that while El Niño usually results in drier conditions, it can also cause more days of very heavy rainfall in specific regions of India. These findings were published in the well-respected journal Science.
Study shows that during El Niño summers, there are actually more extreme rainfall days in India, not fewer. Professor Spencer Hill said that this result was unexpected as it contradicts what has been understood for over a century.
Predicting Weather Patterns
To arrive at this conclusion, the researchers examined more than 100 years of rainfall records. They used detailed rainfall maps and advanced tools to better understand the impact of El Niño on the Indian monsoon. The team divided the data by region, instead of looking at India’s rainfall as a whole. This approach helped them identify patterns that had previously gone unnoticed.
It was found that some regions become much wetter during El Niño, while other experience less rain. The regions most affected by these intense rainfall events by these intense rainfall events are central India and the southwest coastal area. In contrast, parts of the southeast and northwest tend to see fewer heavy rain days during El Niño events.
In 2024 alone, such events resulted in the deaths of more than 3,000 people, damaged over 230,000 homes and buildings, and led to the loss of nearly 10,000 animals.
Why Is It Important
If scientists can better predict when and where these extreme rainfall events occur, it would help authorities prepare in advance, by issuing flood warnings, reinforcing infrastructure, or deploying emergency supplies ahead of time. Experts say that they focused on El Niño for this study, by the same methods could help us understand other natural weather patterns, and even climate change. El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, are part of a larger climate system called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. These changes in ocean temperatures have a major impact on weather around the world.
One of the study’s co-authors, Dr Mark Cane, helped create the first computer model of El Niño in the 1980s. That model laid the groundwork for today’s seasonal climate predictions.
The research team has recently been awarded new funding to continue their work. Over the next three years, they plan to study how storm systems linked to extreme monsoon rains vary depending on whether it’s an El Niño or La Niña year.