Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government lost its majority on Wednesday when the ultra-Orthodox Shas party quit the coalition, following United Torah Judaism’s departure earlier this week.
With 11 seats withdrawn, Netanyahu now controls just 61 of 120 Knesset seats, leaving him vulnerable to no-confidence votes.
Shas cited “persecution against Torah students” for resigning, protesting Netanyahu’s failure to pass a law exempting their religious constituents from mandatory military service.
Though Shas pledged not to actively “undermine” the coalition, its exit paralyzes legislative efforts and risks triggering early elections.
The collapse stems from Israel’s explosive debate over military conscription. Ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredim), who make up 13% of Israel’s population, have historically been exempt from service to pursue religious studies, a practice ruled discriminatory by Israel’s Supreme Court in 2024.
With over 450 soldiers killed in Gaza and troop shortages mounting, public anger over the exemptions surged. When Netanyahu’s coalition failed to codify new exemptions by July 15, Shas and UTJ’s spiritual leaders ordered their lawmakers to resign, calling draft orders an attack on their faith.
The political chaos complicates U.S.-backed efforts to end the 21-month Gaza war.
While ceasefire negotiations continue in Qatar, Netanyahu now relies entirely on far-right allies like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who opposes any deal leaving Hamas intact.
Analysts note Netanyahu could still approve a temporary truce with opposition support, but his weakened position makes concessions harder. “The far-right can now veto any deal by threatening to quit,” warned political scientist Gayil Talshir . Meanwhile, Gaza’s death toll nears 58,500 amid ongoing strikes.
Five survival scenarios for Netanyahu
Netanyahu currently faces limited paths forward:
- Negotiate During Recess: Parliament’s summer break (July 27-October) lets him govern as a minority temporarily while seeking compromises.
- Pass Exemption Law: Rush a new conscription bill to lure back Haredim-but risk alienating secular allies.
- Court Far-Right: Promise Ben-Gvir no permanent Gaza ceasefire, betting war fatigue won’t surge before elections.
- Seek Opposition Help: Partner with centrist parties on Gaza deals, though they reject Netanyahu over his corruption trials.
- Call Early Elections: A last resort if stability proves impossible, with polls showing Netanyahu trailing rivals.