Two decisions of Balen Shah government will show their impact on Nepal’s politics. The arrest of former Prime Minister K.P.Oli will intensify the political conflict. On the other hand, the young supporters of the government are surprised by the ban on student unions associated with political parties in educational institutions. The protest against Oli’s arrest is visible with his supporters taking to the streets. There seems little chance that the ban on student organizations will be easily digested by the generation that brought Balen to power.
The Balen Shah government, born out of the Gen-Z movement, wants to give results in a hurry. But in this haste, is it giving a chance to the opponents to unite? On the other hand, is the government ignoring the possible reaction of the supporting students and youth? On the other hand, Balen wants to improve the political system of Nepal and on the other hand, he wants to free the campus from politics to improve the education system.
Obviously there is nothing wrong in this but on the ground of practicality such changes are not easily accepted. Governments that take decisions have to pay its price.
Debate about political vengeance or justice begins
As soon as Balen Shah took office, the debate has started in Nepal whether there is political vendetta or the law is taking its course. Oli supporters, who were defeated in the elections, have taken to the streets and are clashing with the police at many places. The immediate reason is the decision of the first cabinet meeting of the new government, following which the police have arrested former Prime Minister K.P. Oli and Ramesh Lekhak, who was the Home Minister in his government.
Former Prime Minister of Nepal KP Oli.
The government has made these arrests on the basis of the report of Gauri Bahadur Karki Commission, which was submitted to the previous interim government two weeks ago. In its report, the commission has recommended prosecution against the then Prime Minister Oli, Home Minister Ramesh Lekhri and some officials for the death of 78 agitators due to firing by security forces during the Gen-Z movement on 8 and 9 September 2025.
Oli supporters on the streets after arrest
Warning of a nationwide movement, Oli’s party described the arrest as an act of political vendetta and announced a massive protest movement in 77 districts of Nepal. On the other hand, the government is calling it not retaliation but a part of the judicial process and is saying it is necessary to fix accountability for the deaths in the movement.
Oli supporters are preparing to fight not only on the streets but also on the legal front. His lawyers will soon approach the Supreme Court where the legality of the arrest will be challenged. Those who keep an eye on Nepal’s politics believe that these arrests will increase the struggle of Oli supporters on the streets. This arrest has also given an opportunity to Oli supporters, who were dejected after the massive defeat in the elections, to become active and united.
This can also become the reason for polarization of new and old political forces of Nepal. Whatever the court’s decision, it is certain that the political conflict will continue.
Balen Shah is the new Prime Minister of Nepal.
Police arrested only after receiving written instructions
To see how quickly the Balen government was in arresting Oli and Ramesh Lekhak, the role of Home Minister Sudan Gurung at this juncture should be considered. The Karki Commission, along with the arrest of some officers including Oli and Ramesh Lalkar in connection with the deaths that occurred during the protest on 8 and 9 September 2025, had also recommended giving autonomy to the police, so that the police can take decisions without political interference.
The new government is currently silent on the issue of police autonomy. But the police is also taking cautious steps before taking any action. According to the report of Indian Express, after receiving instructions from Home Minister Gurung to arrest Oli and Ramesh Writer, the police demanded to give it in writing. The police took further steps only after receiving written instructions from Gurung.
Former Nepal PM KP Oli arrested.
Big difference between movement and running the government
37-year-old Home Minister Gurung is recognized as the main face of the Gen-Z movement. In protocol, he is third in the cabinet. He remained equally among the public during the movement and the interim government. To ensure that there is no laxity in following the instructions to arrest Oli and Ramesh writers, Gurung remained at the police headquarters till the news was received.
Balen Shah and his associates have been promising during the movement and then during the elections to bring to book those old leaders whom they hold responsible for the deaths and injuries of many people on September 8 and 9. The Karki Commission report made the way for arrests easier. The expectations of the supporters are very high from those who overthrow the government riding on the wave of public anger. Supporters want quick action. But after converting public anger into votes, the hands that take over the reins of running the government have different responsibilities.
Photo of Nepal’s Gen-Z movement.
Big challenges before Balen
The first challenge before the new government that comes to power due to the failure of the previous governments is whether it should fulfill the expectations of its supporters or give priority to institutional stability? Nepal’s politics is more sensitive in many ways. It has a history of political instability and repeated formation and break of coalition governments. Even after overthrowing the monarchy and adopting democracy, Nepal’s problems have increased due to lack of a stable government. After a long period, voters have elected a government there with absolute majority. Public expectations from that government are not limited to the arrest of a former Prime Minister.
In such a situation, the difficult challenge before Balendra Shah is how to satisfy those supporters for whom confiscation of property and arrest of leaders responsible for violence and corrupt practices during the movement is more important than a stable government. If they do not take action, the supporters get angry and they will be accused of betrayal. On the other hand, if we hurry, the priorities of the government change. He has to create the image of a strict administrator.
As promised, old leaders surrounded by allegations have to be dealt with. At the same time, allegations of political vendetta should also be avoided. The arrest of Oli and Ramesh Writer has come at a juncture where the line between justice and vengeance is very thin. Usually, as soon as the opposition comes to power, strict action against it gives momentary satisfaction to the supporters, but if the scope of opposition expands, then political instability increases.
Indira Gandhi.
Political message of Indira Gandhi’s arrest
There is a bread-and-daughter relationship between Nepal and India. While considering the latest political developments there, one must remember the Emergency in India and then the action of the Janata Party government in 1977 against Indira Gandhi and its political consequences. Angered by the excesses of the Emergency, voters not only ousted Indira Gandhi from power but also made her lose her seat.
Such was the anger of the voters that it did not matter to them which Janata Party candidate was in the fray against the Congress? As promised, the Janata Party government constituted the Shah Commission to investigate the excesses of the Emergency. Although Prime Minister Morarji Desai was not ready, Home Minister Charan Singh was adamant for the arrest of Indira Gandhi.
She was arrested. But this arrest could not stand in the court. She was elected to the Lok Sabha through a by-election in Chikmagalur but the House canceled her membership. Indira Gandhi had come out among the public linking the arrest and every action of the government against her with political vendetta. This initiative brought new life to his supporters who were defeated in the elections.
Indira Gandhi had also fanned the infighting of the Janata Party government. The Janata Party government could complete its tenure of only three and a quarter years. But in this short time, Indira earned so much sympathy by creating the image of a leader suffering from the government, which became helpful in her return to power in 1980. Will Oli be able to repeat Indira Gandhi in Nepal? And will Balen be able to proceed with strict political steps to ensure that he does not get such an opportunity? Will definitely have to wait for the answer.
Why ban on student organizations?
Balen Shah government has prepared a 100-point action plan to improve the education system. There will be no examination till class five. The government has also geared up to free education from politics. The ban on student unions and student organizations affiliated with political parties in educational institutions appears to be an attempt at politics-free education, but it has deep political and social implications.
Especially in the context of the Gen-Z movement. The decision of his government to ban student organizations, the organized form of youth energy that brought Balen to power, is shocking. It should be remembered that the strength of this movement was not only digital mobilization but also the campus network. The ban will end campus-based organized politics, but in that case digital or informal networks may become more radical or uncontrolled.
Balen opened double front
Student politics has been a laboratory for democratic training. Many student leaders from many democratic countries including India went on to achieve high positions in politics. In Nepal, many big leaders from Pushp Kamal Dahal Prachanda to Sher Bahadur Deuba have emerged from student politics. Educational institutions have been preparing nurseries of leaders. This ban will weaken the source of the new generation of political leadership. However, the Nepal government is presenting it as education reform. But students’ perspective may be different.
It is more likely that they will consider this an attack on freedom of expression and a violation of their rights. Look at Oli’s arrest and this ban together. The first decision intensifies the political conflict while the second one makes the pro-government youth base uncomfortable. This is a double front which can become a reason for pressure from the opponents as well as supporters for the government. The next few days will be a tough test for the Balen government.
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