Even though the year 2024 may not have been anything special for the country’s largest company Reliance Industries in terms of market cap, the year 2025 has seen a tremendous increase in the valuation of the company. After the Covid year 2020, the shares of Reliance Industries have seen the highest rise in 2025. If we look at the figures, there has been an increase of more than 26 percent in the shares of Reliance Industries and an increase of Rs 4.4 lakh crore has been seen in the valuation of the company. On Friday, the company’s shares had reached a 52-week high of Rs 1,557.95. Also, the valuation of the company has come to around Rs 21 lakh crore. Now what is the biggest reason for this rise? Let us also tell you what are those triggers which are giving impetus to the shares of Reliance?
Jio IPO
Jefferies has estimated the valuation of Reliance Jio at $180 billion. The company estimates that it is in a position to achieve CAGR of 18%/21% in revenue/EBITDA during FY 26-28. Key factors include rising mobile tariffs, strong growth in home broadband business led by fixed wireless access (FWA), expansion of enterprise business and monetization of its technology infrastructure. The brokerage has also raised its target EV/EBITDA multiple to 15x – 10 per cent higher than Bharti Airtel – citing Jio’s better growth scenario.
Telecom business is going to become an even bigger source. Market expert Sudip Bandyopadhyay expects the next quarter results to be “quite positive” as the benefits of the increase in ARPU will be fully realized. They also expect another increase in ARPU before the end of the financial year, which could provide new momentum.
Additionally, as we know, it was announced in the AGM that value unlocking through listing of the telecom business will be done in the first half of the next calendar year, Bandyopadhyay said in the ET report. So this is expected to happen, and this value unlocking event and its announcement will also create a lot of excitement in the counter.
But the story of telecom is just a puzzle. ICICI Securities has upgraded Reliance to buy with a target price of Rs 1,735. The brokerage has estimated a consolidated EPS CAGR of 15 percent during FY 26-28. Free cash flow yield and return ratio are also expected to improve better than earlier estimates.
Return of oil and chemical business
The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business, which was seen to be under pressure for a long time, is now making a strong comeback. Asian refining margins have improved amid strong infra, refinery maintenance, seasonal fluctuations and geopolitical developments. UBS said spreads for middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) and gasoline have strengthened, and the outlook for jet fuel is particularly positive ahead of winter heating needs.
According to UBS, we expect some softening of spreads in December, but we expect spreads to remain above mid-cycle amid project delays. For Reliance O2C sales, 66 percent of the products come from transport fuel. Our O2C EBITDA has grown from Rs 295 billion in H1 FY26 to Rs 340 billion in H2 FY26 and Rs 648 billion in FY27. UBS has given buying rating with a target price of Rs 1,820.